**Recent official forecasts from Russian meteorological sources, including the Hydrometeorological Center and specialists at Meteonovosti, indicate a maximum temperature in Moscow on August 25, 2026, most likely between 16–19°C under mostly cloudy skies with periods of light rain or showers.** Westerly to southwesterly winds, combined with high humidity and persistent cloud cover from an unstable air mass, are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping readings below seasonal norms (typically near 20–22°C). This setup favors modest afternoon peaks rather than strong warming, aligning closely with the market-implied probabilities that place the highest weight on 17°C, followed by 16°C and 18°C. Model consensus and synoptic guidance issued on August 24 show little divergence on this outcome, with no incoming warm advection or clearing expected to push readings higher. Traders appear to be weighting the latest numerical forecasts and climatological context heavily, resulting in tight clustering around the 16–18°C band while assigning negligible probability to extremes outside that range. Updated model runs or real-time observations on the 25th could refine the exact peak, but the current atmospheric pattern strongly supports the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 25?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 25?
17°C 52%
16°C 27%
18°C 23%
15°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
27%
17°C
52%
18°C
23%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
17°C 52%
16°C 27%
18°C 23%
15°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
13°C or below
$493 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$357 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,013 Vol.
2%
16°C
$928 Vol.
27%
17°C
$1,082 Vol.
52%
18°C
$2,391 Vol.
23%
19°C
$714 Vol.
2%
20°C
$590 Vol.
1%
21°C
$609 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$617 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$1,007 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from Russian meteorological sources, including the Hydrometeorological Center and specialists at Meteonovosti, indicate a maximum temperature in Moscow on August 25, 2026, most likely between 16–19°C under mostly cloudy skies with periods of light rain or showers.**
Westerly to southwesterly winds, combined with high humidity and persistent cloud cover from an unstable air mass, are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping readings below seasonal norms (typically near 20–22°C). This setup favors modest afternoon peaks rather than strong warming, aligning closely with the market-implied probabilities that place the highest weight on 17°C, followed by 16°C and 18°C.
Model consensus and synoptic guidance issued on August 24 show little divergence on this outcome, with no incoming warm advection or clearing expected to push readings higher. Traders appear to be weighting the latest numerical forecasts and climatological context heavily, resulting in tight clustering around the 16–18°C band while assigning negligible probability to extremes outside that range. Updated model runs or real-time observations on the 25th could refine the exact peak, but the current atmospheric pattern strongly supports the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$9,802End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts from Russian meteorological sources, including the Hydrometeorological Center and specialists at Meteonovosti, indicate a maximum temperature in Moscow on August 25, 2026, most likely between 16–19°C under mostly cloudy skies with periods of light rain or showers.**
Westerly to southwesterly winds, combined with high humidity and persistent cloud cover from an unstable air mass, are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping readings below seasonal norms (typically near 20–22°C). This setup favors modest afternoon peaks rather than strong warming, aligning closely with the market-implied probabilities that place the highest weight on 17°C, followed by 16°C and 18°C.
Model consensus and synoptic guidance issued on August 24 show little divergence on this outcome, with no incoming warm advection or clearing expected to push readings higher. Traders appear to be weighting the latest numerical forecasts and climatological context heavily, resulting in tight clustering around the 16–18°C band while assigning negligible probability to extremes outside that range. Updated model runs or real-time observations on the 25th could refine the exact peak, but the current atmospheric pattern strongly supports the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,802End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts from Russian meteorological sources, including the Hydrometeorological Center and specialists at Meteonovosti, indicate a maximum temperature in Moscow on August 25, 2026, most likely between 16–19°C under mostly cloudy skies with periods of light rain or showers.** Westerly to southwesterly winds, combined with high humidity and persistent cloud cover from an unstable air mass, are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping readings below seasonal norms (typically near 20–22°C). This setup favors modest afternoon peaks rather than strong warming, aligning closely with the market-implied probabilities that place the highest weight on 17°C, followed by 16°C and 18°C. Model consensus and synoptic guidance issued on August 24 show little divergence on this outcome, with no incoming warm advection or clearing expected to push readings higher. Traders appear to be weighting the latest numerical forecasts and climatological context heavily, resulting in tight clustering around the 16–18°C band while assigning negligible probability to extremes outside that range. Updated model runs or real-time observations on the 25th could refine the exact peak, but the current atmospheric pattern strongly supports the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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