Current short-range ensemble forecasts for Istanbul on August 26 favor a daily maximum near 27–28 °C, aligning with the market’s tight 47 % / 38 % split between those outcomes. Late-August Mediterranean conditions typically feature moderating northerly flows off the Black Sea that limit peak heating, while variable cloud cover and wind timing can shift the observed high by 1 °C. Model consensus from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service shows modest spread around these values, with historical climatology placing late-August maxima in the same narrow band. Fresh model runs and updated observational data expected over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could tilt resolution between the two leading contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 26?
27°C 47%
28°C 34%
26°C 10%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
10%
27°C
47%
28°C
34%
29°C
6%
30°C
3%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 47%
28°C 34%
26°C 10%
29°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
$180 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$42 Vol.
1%
25°C
$222 Vol.
4%
26°C
$310 Vol.
10%
27°C
$624 Vol.
47%
28°C
$247 Vol.
34%
29°C
$87 Vol.
6%
30°C
$169 Vol.
3%
31°C
$456 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$34 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$300 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts for Istanbul on August 26 favor a daily maximum near 27–28 °C, aligning with the market’s tight 47 % / 38 % split between those outcomes. Late-August Mediterranean conditions typically feature moderating northerly flows off the Black Sea that limit peak heating, while variable cloud cover and wind timing can shift the observed high by 1 °C. Model consensus from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service shows modest spread around these values, with historical climatology placing late-August maxima in the same narrow band. Fresh model runs and updated observational data expected over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could tilt resolution between the two leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,671End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts for Istanbul on August 26 favor a daily maximum near 27–28 °C, aligning with the market’s tight 47 % / 38 % split between those outcomes. Late-August Mediterranean conditions typically feature moderating northerly flows off the Black Sea that limit peak heating, while variable cloud cover and wind timing can shift the observed high by 1 °C. Model consensus from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service shows modest spread around these values, with historical climatology placing late-August maxima in the same narrow band. Fresh model runs and updated observational data expected over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could tilt resolution between the two leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,671End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range ensemble forecasts for Istanbul on August 26 favor a daily maximum near 27–28 °C, aligning with the market’s tight 47 % / 38 % split between those outcomes. Late-August Mediterranean conditions typically feature moderating northerly flows off the Black Sea that limit peak heating, while variable cloud cover and wind timing can shift the observed high by 1 °C. Model consensus from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service shows modest spread around these values, with historical climatology placing late-August maxima in the same narrow band. Fresh model runs and updated observational data expected over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could tilt resolution between the two leading contracts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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