Rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification, combined with extreme summer heat, has driven recent grid stress in regions like PJM and SPP, prompting multiple DOE Section 202(c) emergency orders in June through August 2026 to avert shortfalls. NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment reports adequate resources under normal conditions due to record solar, battery, and gas additions exceeding 58 GW, yet identifies elevated shortfall risks in NPCC-New England, western ERCOT, and WECC-NW during extreme temperatures or low renewable output, when reserve margins can drop sharply. Heat reduces thermal plant efficiency and transmission capacity while spiking air-conditioning loads, with compound events like high heat plus precipitation amplifying outage probability. Through early October, late-summer heat waves or early tropical systems remain key variables, with grid operators monitoring NERC alerts and load forecasts for any escalation to Energy Emergency Alert Level 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill there be a power grid emergency before October 1?
Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
California (CAISO)
41%
Texas (ERCOT)
22%
Central US (SPP)
41%
Midwest (MISO)
41%
Mid-Atlantic (PJM)
38%
New York (NYISO)
38%
New England (ISO-NE)
41%
$402 Vol.
California (CAISO)
$60 Vol.
41%
Texas (ERCOT)
$80 Vol.
22%
Central US (SPP)
$40 Vol.
41%
Midwest (MISO)
$40 Vol.
41%
Mid-Atlantic (PJM)
$40 Vol.
38%
New York (NYISO)
$142 Vol.
38%
New England (ISO-NE)
$0 Vol.
41%
This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official ERCOT communication — its news releases (https://www.ercot.com/news/releases), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 15 U.S. states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Midwest" in the title is a general label — only a MISO declaration counts, and emergencies in other grid operators do not qualify.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official MISO communication — its Media Center (https://www.misoenergy.org/meet-miso/media-center/), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if PJM Interconnection declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) anywhere across its footprint from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. PJM serves all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; a qualifying declaration anywhere in that footprint counts, and "Mid-Atlantic" in the title is only a general label.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official PJM communication — its Inside Lines blog (https://insidelines.pjm.com/), emergency-procedure or market messages, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official NYISO communication — its News & Media page (https://www.nyiso.com/news-and-media), market notices, or real-time system-conditions postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if ISO New England (ISO-NE) — the grid operator for the six New England states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official ISO New England communication — its press releases (https://www.iso-ne.com/about/news-media/press-releases), market notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".Rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification, combined with extreme summer heat, has driven recent grid stress in regions like PJM and SPP, prompting multiple DOE Section 202(c) emergency orders in June through August 2026 to avert shortfalls. NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment reports adequate resources under normal conditions due to record solar, battery, and gas additions exceeding 58 GW, yet identifies elevated shortfall risks in NPCC-New England, western ERCOT, and WECC-NW during extreme temperatures or low renewable output, when reserve margins can drop sharply. Heat reduces thermal plant efficiency and transmission capacity while spiking air-conditioning loads, with compound events like high heat plus precipitation amplifying outage probability. Through early October, late-summer heat waves or early tropical systems remain key variables, with grid operators monitoring NERC alerts and load forecasts for any escalation to Energy Emergency Alert Level 3.
This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 5:25 PM ET
Volume
$402End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 5:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official ERCOT communication — its news releases (https://www.ercot.com/news/releases), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 15 U.S. states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Midwest" in the title is a general label — only a MISO declaration counts, and emergencies in other grid operators do not qualify.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official MISO communication — its Media Center (https://www.misoenergy.org/meet-miso/media-center/), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if PJM Interconnection declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) anywhere across its footprint from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. PJM serves all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; a qualifying declaration anywhere in that footprint counts, and "Mid-Atlantic" in the title is only a general label.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official PJM communication — its Inside Lines blog (https://insidelines.pjm.com/), emergency-procedure or market messages, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official NYISO communication — its News & Media page (https://www.nyiso.com/news-and-media), market notices, or real-time system-conditions postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if ISO New England (ISO-NE) — the grid operator for the six New England states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official ISO New England communication — its press releases (https://www.iso-ne.com/about/news-media/press-releases), market notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".Rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification, combined with extreme summer heat, has driven recent grid stress in regions like PJM and SPP, prompting multiple DOE Section 202(c) emergency orders in June through August 2026 to avert shortfalls. NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment reports adequate resources under normal conditions due to record solar, battery, and gas additions exceeding 58 GW, yet identifies elevated shortfall risks in NPCC-New England, western ERCOT, and WECC-NW during extreme temperatures or low renewable output, when reserve margins can drop sharply. Heat reduces thermal plant efficiency and transmission capacity while spiking air-conditioning loads, with compound events like high heat plus precipitation amplifying outage probability. Through early October, late-summer heat waves or early tropical systems remain key variables, with grid operators monitoring NERC alerts and load forecasts for any escalation to Energy Emergency Alert Level 3.
This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026.
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.
The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.
Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Volume
$402End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 5:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification, combined with extreme summer heat, has driven recent grid stress in regions like PJM and SPP, prompting multiple DOE Section 202(c) emergency orders in June through August 2026 to avert shortfalls. NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment reports adequate resources under normal conditions due to record solar, battery, and gas additions exceeding 58 GW, yet identifies elevated shortfall risks in NPCC-New England, western ERCOT, and WECC-NW during extreme temperatures or low renewable output, when reserve margins can drop sharply. Heat reduces thermal plant efficiency and transmission capacity while spiking air-conditioning loads, with compound events like high heat plus precipitation amplifying outage probability. Through early October, late-summer heat waves or early tropical systems remain key variables, with grid operators monitoring NERC alerts and load forecasts for any escalation to Energy Emergency Alert Level 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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