Elevated tornado warning issuance through mid-August 2026, exceeding prior records by more than threefold according to National Weather Service data, supports trader focus on the 80–99 bin as the leading outcome. This range aligns closely with NOAA’s long-term August average of roughly 81 confirmed tornadoes, driven by typical late-summer patterns including a northward-shifted jet stream that favors weaker, shorter-lived events over the Plains and Midwest. With seven days remaining, recent SPC guidance and climatological analogs indicate moderate ongoing risk without the extreme outbreaks seen earlier in 2026. Preliminary reports expected in early September will provide key verification updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
80-99 53%
100–119 42%
40–59 3.6%
60-79 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
2%
40–59
4%
60-79
3%
80-99
53%
100–119
42%
120–139
3%
140-169
2%
170–199
1%
200+
3%
80-99 53%
100–119 42%
40–59 3.6%
60-79 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$300 Vol.
2%
40–59
$533 Vol.
4%
60-79
$1,848 Vol.
3%
80-99
$2,457 Vol.
53%
100–119
$486 Vol.
42%
120–139
$78 Vol.
3%
140-169
$266 Vol.
2%
170–199
$214 Vol.
1%
200+
$304 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated tornado warning issuance through mid-August 2026, exceeding prior records by more than threefold according to National Weather Service data, supports trader focus on the 80–99 bin as the leading outcome. This range aligns closely with NOAA’s long-term August average of roughly 81 confirmed tornadoes, driven by typical late-summer patterns including a northward-shifted jet stream that favors weaker, shorter-lived events over the Plains and Midwest. With seven days remaining, recent SPC guidance and climatological analogs indicate moderate ongoing risk without the extreme outbreaks seen earlier in 2026. Preliminary reports expected in early September will provide key verification updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$6,486End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated tornado warning issuance through mid-August 2026, exceeding prior records by more than threefold according to National Weather Service data, supports trader focus on the 80–99 bin as the leading outcome. This range aligns closely with NOAA’s long-term August average of roughly 81 confirmed tornadoes, driven by typical late-summer patterns including a northward-shifted jet stream that favors weaker, shorter-lived events over the Plains and Midwest. With seven days remaining, recent SPC guidance and climatological analogs indicate moderate ongoing risk without the extreme outbreaks seen earlier in 2026. Preliminary reports expected in early September will provide key verification updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$6,486End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated tornado warning issuance through mid-August 2026, exceeding prior records by more than threefold according to National Weather Service data, supports trader focus on the 80–99 bin as the leading outcome. This range aligns closely with NOAA’s long-term August average of roughly 81 confirmed tornadoes, driven by typical late-summer patterns including a northward-shifted jet stream that favors weaker, shorter-lived events over the Plains and Midwest. With seven days remaining, recent SPC guidance and climatological analogs indicate moderate ongoing risk without the extreme outbreaks seen earlier in 2026. Preliminary reports expected in early September will provide key verification updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions