The near-certain 99% market-implied probability for "No" stems from the established geophysical limit that magnitude 10 or greater earthquakes cannot occur on Earth. USGS analysis shows earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length, and no known fault approaches the scale required—roughly spanning much of the planet—while the historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960 along Chile’s megathrust. With only months remaining before 2027, ongoing global seismic monitoring by the USGS and similar agencies continues to record events well below this threshold, reinforcing trader consensus. The only conceivable shifts would involve unprecedented measurement revisions or entirely novel rupture mechanics, both viewed as negligible given decades of observational data.