Recent positive Phase 3 results from Moderna and Merck’s intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) personalized mRNA neoantigen therapy, announced August 19, 2026, represent the primary driver behind the 87.5% market-implied odds. The INTerpath-001 trial met its recurrence-free survival endpoint and a key distant metastasis-free survival secondary in over 1,100 resected stage IIB–IV melanoma patients when combined with Keytruda, marking the first late-stage success for this mRNA cancer vaccine approach. Executives have signaled imminent regulatory engagement, and analysts project a potential 2027 filing and launch window given prior Breakthrough Therapy Designation and typical biologics timelines. Full data presentation at an upcoming medical meeting and manufacturing readiness for individualized doses remain key near-term catalysts that could further support timely BLA submission by mid-2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated88% chance
$39,865 Vol.
$39,865 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
88% chance
$39,865 Vol.
$39,865 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent positive Phase 3 results from Moderna and Merck’s intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) personalized mRNA neoantigen therapy, announced August 19, 2026, represent the primary driver behind the 87.5% market-implied odds. The INTerpath-001 trial met its recurrence-free survival endpoint and a key distant metastasis-free survival secondary in over 1,100 resected stage IIB–IV melanoma patients when combined with Keytruda, marking the first late-stage success for this mRNA cancer vaccine approach. Executives have signaled imminent regulatory engagement, and analysts project a potential 2027 filing and launch window given prior Breakthrough Therapy Designation and typical biologics timelines. Full data presentation at an upcoming medical meeting and manufacturing readiness for individualized doses remain key near-term catalysts that could further support timely BLA submission by mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$39,865End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent positive Phase 3 results from Moderna and Merck’s intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) personalized mRNA neoantigen therapy, announced August 19, 2026, represent the primary driver behind the 87.5% market-implied odds. The INTerpath-001 trial met its recurrence-free survival endpoint and a key distant metastasis-free survival secondary in over 1,100 resected stage IIB–IV melanoma patients when combined with Keytruda, marking the first late-stage success for this mRNA cancer vaccine approach. Executives have signaled imminent regulatory engagement, and analysts project a potential 2027 filing and launch window given prior Breakthrough Therapy Designation and typical biologics timelines. Full data presentation at an upcoming medical meeting and manufacturing readiness for individualized doses remain key near-term catalysts that could further support timely BLA submission by mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$39,865End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent positive Phase 3 results from Moderna and Merck’s intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) personalized mRNA neoantigen therapy, announced August 19, 2026, represent the primary driver behind the 87.5% market-implied odds. The INTerpath-001 trial met its recurrence-free survival endpoint and a key distant metastasis-free survival secondary in over 1,100 resected stage IIB–IV melanoma patients when combined with Keytruda, marking the first late-stage success for this mRNA cancer vaccine approach. Executives have signaled imminent regulatory engagement, and analysts project a potential 2027 filing and launch window given prior Breakthrough Therapy Designation and typical biologics timelines. Full data presentation at an upcoming medical meeting and manufacturing readiness for individualized doses remain key near-term catalysts that could further support timely BLA submission by mid-2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions