Multiple record-shattering heatwaves have propelled France toward its hottest summer on record, driving the 96.8% market-implied odds for yes. An unprecedented early June canicule delivered the three hottest national average days ever measured, with the indicator thermique national hitting 30°C and surpassing the 2003 benchmark, while subsequent July and August episodes extended the total heatwave count to a record 52 days by mid-month—nearly double the prior mark. Western and Atlantic regions posted dozens of all-time local highs, and 2026 already leads all years in cumulative days above 40°C across monitoring stations. With summer nearly concluded, only an extraordinarily cool final week could alter the outcome, though historical patterns and current trajectories make that highly improbable. Traders’ near-certainty reflects the overwhelming verified data and limited remaining variables.