**Ongoing extreme heat across the Northern Hemisphere in early August 2026 has driven overwhelming trader consensus (97.5% implied probability) that one of August 1–3 set the all-time daily global or hemispheric surface air temperature record.** Official monitoring from Copernicus, NOAA, and regional agencies documented widespread record-breaking highs, including multiple national and station records in Europe, Asia, and North America amid a prolonged heat dome and developing El Niño influences. July 2026 already tied or ranked among the warmest Julys on record, establishing a high baseline; early August observations extended this trajectory, with reports explicitly noting August 1 as the warmest Northern Hemisphere day on record. Market positioning reflects this verified observational data from ERA5 and similar reanalyses, where trader capital aggregates assessments of measurement certainty. Realistic challenges include final post-processing revisions by agencies that could adjust rankings or confirm the precise metric (global vs. hemispheric daily maximum), though current evidence strongly supports the leading outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 97.4%
4th or lower 2.5%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
97%
2nd hottest
1%
3rd hottest
<1%
4th or lower
3%
1st hottest 97.4%
4th or lower 2.5%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$753 Vol.
97%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
1%
3rd hottest
$431 Vol.
<1%
4th or lower
$405 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**Ongoing extreme heat across the Northern Hemisphere in early August 2026 has driven overwhelming trader consensus (97.5% implied probability) that one of August 1–3 set the all-time daily global or hemispheric surface air temperature record.** Official monitoring from Copernicus, NOAA, and regional agencies documented widespread record-breaking highs, including multiple national and station records in Europe, Asia, and North America amid a prolonged heat dome and developing El Niño influences. July 2026 already tied or ranked among the warmest Julys on record, establishing a high baseline; early August observations extended this trajectory, with reports explicitly noting August 1 as the warmest Northern Hemisphere day on record. Market positioning reflects this verified observational data from ERA5 and similar reanalyses, where trader capital aggregates assessments of measurement certainty.
Realistic challenges include final post-processing revisions by agencies that could adjust rankings or confirm the precise metric (global vs. hemispheric daily maximum), though current evidence strongly supports the leading outcome.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,152End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**Ongoing extreme heat across the Northern Hemisphere in early August 2026 has driven overwhelming trader consensus (97.5% implied probability) that one of August 1–3 set the all-time daily global or hemispheric surface air temperature record.** Official monitoring from Copernicus, NOAA, and regional agencies documented widespread record-breaking highs, including multiple national and station records in Europe, Asia, and North America amid a prolonged heat dome and developing El Niño influences. July 2026 already tied or ranked among the warmest Julys on record, establishing a high baseline; early August observations extended this trajectory, with reports explicitly noting August 1 as the warmest Northern Hemisphere day on record. Market positioning reflects this verified observational data from ERA5 and similar reanalyses, where trader capital aggregates assessments of measurement certainty.
Realistic challenges include final post-processing revisions by agencies that could adjust rankings or confirm the precise metric (global vs. hemispheric daily maximum), though current evidence strongly supports the leading outcome.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,152End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing extreme heat across the Northern Hemisphere in early August 2026 has driven overwhelming trader consensus (97.5% implied probability) that one of August 1–3 set the all-time daily global or hemispheric surface air temperature record.** Official monitoring from Copernicus, NOAA, and regional agencies documented widespread record-breaking highs, including multiple national and station records in Europe, Asia, and North America amid a prolonged heat dome and developing El Niño influences. July 2026 already tied or ranked among the warmest Julys on record, establishing a high baseline; early August observations extended this trajectory, with reports explicitly noting August 1 as the warmest Northern Hemisphere day on record. Market positioning reflects this verified observational data from ERA5 and similar reanalyses, where trader capital aggregates assessments of measurement certainty. Realistic challenges include final post-processing revisions by agencies that could adjust rankings or confirm the precise metric (global vs. hemispheric daily maximum), though current evidence strongly supports the leading outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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