Current forecasts from Environment Canada and global models indicate Toronto's overnight low on August 25 will likely settle between 14–17°C, driving the closely matched market probabilities around 15–17°C. Persistent cloud cover and moderating southwesterly flow are limiting radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25°C, while dew points in the mid-teens support modest overnight drops. Model spreads reflect minor variations in timing of any clearing and wind speeds, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical late-August climatology at Pearson Airport shows average lows near 15–16°C, providing context for the tight clustering of trader-implied odds. Updated model runs and official guidance expected overnight will further refine the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
12°C 50%
16°C 30%
15°C 27%
17°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
11°C or below
10%
12°C
50%
13°C
15%
14°C
26%
15°C
27%
16°C
30%
17°C
27%
18°C
26%
19°C
2%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
2%
12°C 50%
16°C 30%
15°C 27%
17°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
11°C or below
$150 Vol.
10%
12°C
$20 Vol.
50%
13°C
$71 Vol.
15%
14°C
$6 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
30%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$90 Vol.
2%
20°C
$150 Vol.
7%
21°C or higher
$135 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and global models indicate Toronto's overnight low on August 25 will likely settle between 14–17°C, driving the closely matched market probabilities around 15–17°C. Persistent cloud cover and moderating southwesterly flow are limiting radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25°C, while dew points in the mid-teens support modest overnight drops. Model spreads reflect minor variations in timing of any clearing and wind speeds, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical late-August climatology at Pearson Airport shows average lows near 15–16°C, providing context for the tight clustering of trader-implied odds. Updated model runs and official guidance expected overnight will further refine the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$622End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and global models indicate Toronto's overnight low on August 25 will likely settle between 14–17°C, driving the closely matched market probabilities around 15–17°C. Persistent cloud cover and moderating southwesterly flow are limiting radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25°C, while dew points in the mid-teens support modest overnight drops. Model spreads reflect minor variations in timing of any clearing and wind speeds, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical late-August climatology at Pearson Airport shows average lows near 15–16°C, providing context for the tight clustering of trader-implied odds. Updated model runs and official guidance expected overnight will further refine the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$622End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from Environment Canada and global models indicate Toronto's overnight low on August 25 will likely settle between 14–17°C, driving the closely matched market probabilities around 15–17°C. Persistent cloud cover and moderating southwesterly flow are limiting radiative cooling after daytime highs near 25°C, while dew points in the mid-teens support modest overnight drops. Model spreads reflect minor variations in timing of any clearing and wind speeds, which could shift the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical late-August climatology at Pearson Airport shows average lows near 15–16°C, providing context for the tight clustering of trader-implied odds. Updated model runs and official guidance expected overnight will further refine the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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