Traders see closely matched probabilities across 22–30°C lows for Shenzhen on August 26 because the two-day forecast remains sensitive to the exact track and intensity of Tropical Storm Narra, which is forecast to approach or affect the northern South China Sea and nearby Guangdong coast during 24–26 August. The southwest monsoon trough and associated cloud cover and rainfall can suppress daytime heating while enhancing evaporative cooling overnight, potentially dropping minima several degrees below the seasonal 26–27°C average; conversely, clearer breaks would support readings near 28–30°C. Numerical models show modest spread on wind shear and steering flow, keeping the market-implied distribution broad until updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration or regional ensembles arrives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
22°C or below 72%
23°C 42%
31°C 39%
26°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
72%
23°C
42%
24°C
9%
25°C
27%
26°C
29%
27°C
25%
28°C
27%
29°C
25%
30°C
23%
31°C
39%
32°C or higher
1%
22°C or below 72%
23°C 42%
31°C 39%
26°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$135 Vol.
72%
23°C
$145 Vol.
42%
24°C
$0 Vol.
9%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
29%
27°C
$0 Vol.
25%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
25%
30°C
$150 Vol.
23%
31°C
$135 Vol.
39%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see closely matched probabilities across 22–30°C lows for Shenzhen on August 26 because the two-day forecast remains sensitive to the exact track and intensity of Tropical Storm Narra, which is forecast to approach or affect the northern South China Sea and nearby Guangdong coast during 24–26 August. The southwest monsoon trough and associated cloud cover and rainfall can suppress daytime heating while enhancing evaporative cooling overnight, potentially dropping minima several degrees below the seasonal 26–27°C average; conversely, clearer breaks would support readings near 28–30°C. Numerical models show modest spread on wind shear and steering flow, keeping the market-implied distribution broad until updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration or regional ensembles arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$565End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see closely matched probabilities across 22–30°C lows for Shenzhen on August 26 because the two-day forecast remains sensitive to the exact track and intensity of Tropical Storm Narra, which is forecast to approach or affect the northern South China Sea and nearby Guangdong coast during 24–26 August. The southwest monsoon trough and associated cloud cover and rainfall can suppress daytime heating while enhancing evaporative cooling overnight, potentially dropping minima several degrees below the seasonal 26–27°C average; conversely, clearer breaks would support readings near 28–30°C. Numerical models show modest spread on wind shear and steering flow, keeping the market-implied distribution broad until updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration or regional ensembles arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$565End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see closely matched probabilities across 22–30°C lows for Shenzhen on August 26 because the two-day forecast remains sensitive to the exact track and intensity of Tropical Storm Narra, which is forecast to approach or affect the northern South China Sea and nearby Guangdong coast during 24–26 August. The southwest monsoon trough and associated cloud cover and rainfall can suppress daytime heating while enhancing evaporative cooling overnight, potentially dropping minima several degrees below the seasonal 26–27°C average; conversely, clearer breaks would support readings near 28–30°C. Numerical models show modest spread on wind shear and steering flow, keeping the market-implied distribution broad until updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration or regional ensembles arrives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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