Recent model consensus from global ensembles highlights elevated uncertainty in Shenzhen's overnight minimum on August 26, with widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms expected to limit radiative cooling and hold lows near 26°C while occasional heavier rain bands could advect slightly cooler maritime air. This underpins the closely matched market-implied odds favoring 22°C or below (34.5%) alongside 26°C (30.5%), reflecting trader assessment of forecast spread in humidity, wind speed, and precipitation timing. Typical August climatology shows lows averaging 26–27°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, but short-term variability from monsoon trough interactions can shift minima by 3–5°C depending on the exact arrival of convective activity. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs later today will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
22°C or below 69%
23°C 40%
31°C 39%
30°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
69%
23°C
40%
24°C
9%
25°C
22%
26°C
31%
27°C
23%
28°C
25%
29°C
19%
30°C
35%
31°C
39%
32°C or higher
1%
22°C or below 69%
23°C 40%
31°C 39%
30°C 35%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$135 Vol.
69%
23°C
$145 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
9%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
31%
27°C
$0 Vol.
23%
28°C
$0 Vol.
25%
29°C
$0 Vol.
19%
30°C
$150 Vol.
35%
31°C
$135 Vol.
39%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global ensembles highlights elevated uncertainty in Shenzhen's overnight minimum on August 26, with widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms expected to limit radiative cooling and hold lows near 26°C while occasional heavier rain bands could advect slightly cooler maritime air. This underpins the closely matched market-implied odds favoring 22°C or below (34.5%) alongside 26°C (30.5%), reflecting trader assessment of forecast spread in humidity, wind speed, and precipitation timing. Typical August climatology shows lows averaging 26–27°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, but short-term variability from monsoon trough interactions can shift minima by 3–5°C depending on the exact arrival of convective activity. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs later today will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$565End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global ensembles highlights elevated uncertainty in Shenzhen's overnight minimum on August 26, with widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms expected to limit radiative cooling and hold lows near 26°C while occasional heavier rain bands could advect slightly cooler maritime air. This underpins the closely matched market-implied odds favoring 22°C or below (34.5%) alongside 26°C (30.5%), reflecting trader assessment of forecast spread in humidity, wind speed, and precipitation timing. Typical August climatology shows lows averaging 26–27°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, but short-term variability from monsoon trough interactions can shift minima by 3–5°C depending on the exact arrival of convective activity. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs later today will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$565End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from global ensembles highlights elevated uncertainty in Shenzhen's overnight minimum on August 26, with widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms expected to limit radiative cooling and hold lows near 26°C while occasional heavier rain bands could advect slightly cooler maritime air. This underpins the closely matched market-implied odds favoring 22°C or below (34.5%) alongside 26°C (30.5%), reflecting trader assessment of forecast spread in humidity, wind speed, and precipitation timing. Typical August climatology shows lows averaging 26–27°C under the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high, but short-term variability from monsoon trough interactions can shift minima by 3–5°C depending on the exact arrival of convective activity. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs later today will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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