**Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and high humidity are the main drivers keeping trader sentiment tightly clustered around 26–29°C lows for Shenzhen on August 25.** With southerly flow, dew points near 25–26°C, and widespread cloud cover, nocturnal radiative cooling remains limited, preventing sharp drops below the mid-20s. Official and ensemble forecasts show consistent overnight minima in this narrow band, reflecting typical late-August conditions in the humid subtropical climate where rain and moisture trap heat. Minor model differences in storm timing and coverage create the even distribution across 26°C, 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C outcomes, while probabilities for 25°C or below stay low absent a clear break in the pattern. Updated guidance from monitoring agencies ahead of the 24-hour window will be key for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
28°C 35%
26°C 34%
27°C 34%
29°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
34%
27°C
34%
28°C
35%
29°C
34%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 35%
26°C 34%
27°C 34%
29°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$210 Vol.
1%
24°C
$83 Vol.
1%
25°C
$110 Vol.
4%
26°C
$0 Vol.
34%
27°C
$0 Vol.
34%
28°C
$0 Vol.
35%
29°C
$135 Vol.
34%
30°C
$291 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$663 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$620 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and high humidity are the main drivers keeping trader sentiment tightly clustered around 26–29°C lows for Shenzhen on August 25.** With southerly flow, dew points near 25–26°C, and widespread cloud cover, nocturnal radiative cooling remains limited, preventing sharp drops below the mid-20s. Official and ensemble forecasts show consistent overnight minima in this narrow band, reflecting typical late-August conditions in the humid subtropical climate where rain and moisture trap heat. Minor model differences in storm timing and coverage create the even distribution across 26°C, 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C outcomes, while probabilities for 25°C or below stay low absent a clear break in the pattern. Updated guidance from monitoring agencies ahead of the 24-hour window will be key for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,588End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and high humidity are the main drivers keeping trader sentiment tightly clustered around 26–29°C lows for Shenzhen on August 25.** With southerly flow, dew points near 25–26°C, and widespread cloud cover, nocturnal radiative cooling remains limited, preventing sharp drops below the mid-20s. Official and ensemble forecasts show consistent overnight minima in this narrow band, reflecting typical late-August conditions in the humid subtropical climate where rain and moisture trap heat. Minor model differences in storm timing and coverage create the even distribution across 26°C, 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C outcomes, while probabilities for 25°C or below stay low absent a clear break in the pattern. Updated guidance from monitoring agencies ahead of the 24-hour window will be key for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,588End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and high humidity are the main drivers keeping trader sentiment tightly clustered around 26–29°C lows for Shenzhen on August 25.** With southerly flow, dew points near 25–26°C, and widespread cloud cover, nocturnal radiative cooling remains limited, preventing sharp drops below the mid-20s. Official and ensemble forecasts show consistent overnight minima in this narrow band, reflecting typical late-August conditions in the humid subtropical climate where rain and moisture trap heat. Minor model differences in storm timing and coverage create the even distribution across 26°C, 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C outcomes, while probabilities for 25°C or below stay low absent a clear break in the pattern. Updated guidance from monitoring agencies ahead of the 24-hour window will be key for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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