Persistent southwest monsoon flows and widespread cloud cover over Metro Manila continue to limit overnight radiative cooling, anchoring current PAGASA and numerical model guidance for minimum temperatures near 26–27 °C on August 26. Recent active habagat episodes have delivered frequent showers and overcast skies, which historically raise observed lows by 1–2 °C above clear-sky climatology of 24–26 °C. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread around these values due to uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and wind speeds, producing the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities across 25–27 °C outcomes. Updated PAGASA outlooks and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 26?
31°C or higher 50%
23°C 49%
27°C 29%
26°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
10%
23°C
49%
24°C
19%
25°C
28%
26°C
28%
27°C
29%
28°C
26%
29°C
22%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
50%
31°C or higher 50%
23°C 49%
27°C 29%
26°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
$135 Vol.
2%
22°C
$135 Vol.
10%
23°C
$5 Vol.
49%
24°C
$100 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
29%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$144 Vol.
22%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flows and widespread cloud cover over Metro Manila continue to limit overnight radiative cooling, anchoring current PAGASA and numerical model guidance for minimum temperatures near 26–27 °C on August 26. Recent active habagat episodes have delivered frequent showers and overcast skies, which historically raise observed lows by 1–2 °C above clear-sky climatology of 24–26 °C. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread around these values due to uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and wind speeds, producing the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities across 25–27 °C outcomes. Updated PAGASA outlooks and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$529End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flows and widespread cloud cover over Metro Manila continue to limit overnight radiative cooling, anchoring current PAGASA and numerical model guidance for minimum temperatures near 26–27 °C on August 26. Recent active habagat episodes have delivered frequent showers and overcast skies, which historically raise observed lows by 1–2 °C above clear-sky climatology of 24–26 °C. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread around these values due to uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and wind speeds, producing the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities across 25–27 °C outcomes. Updated PAGASA outlooks and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$529End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon flows and widespread cloud cover over Metro Manila continue to limit overnight radiative cooling, anchoring current PAGASA and numerical model guidance for minimum temperatures near 26–27 °C on August 26. Recent active habagat episodes have delivered frequent showers and overcast skies, which historically raise observed lows by 1–2 °C above clear-sky climatology of 24–26 °C. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread around these values due to uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and wind speeds, producing the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities across 25–27 °C outcomes. Updated PAGASA outlooks and next model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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