Frequent southwest monsoon rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila are moderating overnight temperatures ahead of August 26, keeping minimums in a narrow band near historical averages of 26–28°C. Persistent cloud cover and high humidity limit radiative cooling after sunset, while moderate southwesterly winds enhance mixing. Recent PAGASA advisories highlight scattered showers through the period, which traders interpret as favoring 25–27°C outcomes with closely matched probabilities. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability, though localized clearing or heavier rainfall could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C depending on timing and intensity of convection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 26?
31°C or higher 35%
23°C 31%
25°C 28%
27°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
31%
24°C
19%
25°C
28%
26°C
27%
27°C
28%
28°C
24%
29°C
23%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
35%
31°C or higher 35%
23°C 31%
25°C 28%
27°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
$135 Vol.
2%
22°C
$135 Vol.
8%
23°C
$5 Vol.
31%
24°C
$100 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$51 Vol.
24%
29°C
$144 Vol.
23%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Frequent southwest monsoon rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila are moderating overnight temperatures ahead of August 26, keeping minimums in a narrow band near historical averages of 26–28°C. Persistent cloud cover and high humidity limit radiative cooling after sunset, while moderate southwesterly winds enhance mixing. Recent PAGASA advisories highlight scattered showers through the period, which traders interpret as favoring 25–27°C outcomes with closely matched probabilities. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability, though localized clearing or heavier rainfall could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C depending on timing and intensity of convection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$580End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Frequent southwest monsoon rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila are moderating overnight temperatures ahead of August 26, keeping minimums in a narrow band near historical averages of 26–28°C. Persistent cloud cover and high humidity limit radiative cooling after sunset, while moderate southwesterly winds enhance mixing. Recent PAGASA advisories highlight scattered showers through the period, which traders interpret as favoring 25–27°C outcomes with closely matched probabilities. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability, though localized clearing or heavier rainfall could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C depending on timing and intensity of convection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$580End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Frequent southwest monsoon rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila are moderating overnight temperatures ahead of August 26, keeping minimums in a narrow band near historical averages of 26–28°C. Persistent cloud cover and high humidity limit radiative cooling after sunset, while moderate southwesterly winds enhance mixing. Recent PAGASA advisories highlight scattered showers through the period, which traders interpret as favoring 25–27°C outcomes with closely matched probabilities. Model consensus shows limited day-to-day variability, though localized clearing or heavier rainfall could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C depending on timing and intensity of convection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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