Southwest monsoon conditions, reinforced by distant tropical cyclone activity, are the main driver keeping Manila's maximum temperature on August 25 centered near 30–32°C. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, which limit solar heating and align with recent daily maxima near 31°C. Model guidance from multiple sources shows highs of roughly 29–31°C under high humidity and southwesterly flow, consistent with typical rainy-season climatology of 30–31°C averages. The implied probabilities favor 32°C as the most likely outcome because modest breaks in cloud cover could allow brief warming to that level, while heavier rainfall would cap it closer to 30–31°C; updated PAGASA bulletins and afternoon observations will provide the key data for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 25?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 25?
32°C 45%
33°C 24%
31°C 21%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
21%
32°C
45%
33°C
24%
34°C
3%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 45%
33°C 24%
31°C 21%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
$421 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$705 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$468 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$128 Vol.
3%
30°C
$378 Vol.
8%
31°C
$1,277 Vol.
21%
32°C
$960 Vol.
45%
33°C
$441 Vol.
24%
34°C
$355 Vol.
3%
35°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$480 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon conditions, reinforced by distant tropical cyclone activity, are the main driver keeping Manila's maximum temperature on August 25 centered near 30–32°C. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, which limit solar heating and align with recent daily maxima near 31°C. Model guidance from multiple sources shows highs of roughly 29–31°C under high humidity and southwesterly flow, consistent with typical rainy-season climatology of 30–31°C averages. The implied probabilities favor 32°C as the most likely outcome because modest breaks in cloud cover could allow brief warming to that level, while heavier rainfall would cap it closer to 30–31°C; updated PAGASA bulletins and afternoon observations will provide the key data for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$5,643End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon conditions, reinforced by distant tropical cyclone activity, are the main driver keeping Manila's maximum temperature on August 25 centered near 30–32°C. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, which limit solar heating and align with recent daily maxima near 31°C. Model guidance from multiple sources shows highs of roughly 29–31°C under high humidity and southwesterly flow, consistent with typical rainy-season climatology of 30–31°C averages. The implied probabilities favor 32°C as the most likely outcome because modest breaks in cloud cover could allow brief warming to that level, while heavier rainfall would cap it closer to 30–31°C; updated PAGASA bulletins and afternoon observations will provide the key data for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,643End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Southwest monsoon conditions, reinforced by distant tropical cyclone activity, are the main driver keeping Manila's maximum temperature on August 25 centered near 30–32°C. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, which limit solar heating and align with recent daily maxima near 31°C. Model guidance from multiple sources shows highs of roughly 29–31°C under high humidity and southwesterly flow, consistent with typical rainy-season climatology of 30–31°C averages. The implied probabilities favor 32°C as the most likely outcome because modest breaks in cloud cover could allow brief warming to that level, while heavier rainfall would cap it closer to 30–31°C; updated PAGASA bulletins and afternoon observations will provide the key data for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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