Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project an overnight low of 27°C on August 25 under southwest monsoon influence, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms keeping radiative cooling limited. Typical August nocturnal minima in the region range 26–27°C, consistent with high humidity and cloud cover that suppress temperature drops. Recent model runs show little deviation from this baseline, supporting market-implied odds favoring 27°C or 26°C as the most probable recorded low. Any shift toward 25°C would require clearer skies or stronger outflow, which current guidance does not indicate ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 25?
26°C 34%
25°C 34%
24°C 26%
23°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
26%
25°C
34%
26°C
34%
27°C
58%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 34%
25°C 34%
24°C 26%
23°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$145 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$69 Vol.
2%
24°C
$83 Vol.
26%
25°C
$6 Vol.
34%
26°C
$0 Vol.
34%
27°C
$40 Vol.
58%
28°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$290 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$340 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$335 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project an overnight low of 27°C on August 25 under southwest monsoon influence, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms keeping radiative cooling limited. Typical August nocturnal minima in the region range 26–27°C, consistent with high humidity and cloud cover that suppress temperature drops. Recent model runs show little deviation from this baseline, supporting market-implied odds favoring 27°C or 26°C as the most probable recorded low. Any shift toward 25°C would require clearer skies or stronger outflow, which current guidance does not indicate ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$1,692End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project an overnight low of 27°C on August 25 under southwest monsoon influence, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms keeping radiative cooling limited. Typical August nocturnal minima in the region range 26–27°C, consistent with high humidity and cloud cover that suppress temperature drops. Recent model runs show little deviation from this baseline, supporting market-implied odds favoring 27°C or 26°C as the most probable recorded low. Any shift toward 25°C would require clearer skies or stronger outflow, which current guidance does not indicate ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,692End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila project an overnight low of 27°C on August 25 under southwest monsoon influence, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms keeping radiative cooling limited. Typical August nocturnal minima in the region range 26–27°C, consistent with high humidity and cloud cover that suppress temperature drops. Recent model runs show little deviation from this baseline, supporting market-implied odds favoring 27°C or 26°C as the most probable recorded low. Any shift toward 25°C would require clearer skies or stronger outflow, which current guidance does not indicate ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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