Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts point to a London minimum near 18°C on August 26, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C. Following an exceptionally warm summer with minimum temperatures averaging 1.5°C above the long-term baseline, the region is transitioning toward more typical late-August conditions with reduced daytime heating and variable cloud cover that modulates nighttime radiative cooling. Key variables include the extent of clear skies, which could allow temperatures to dip toward 17°C, versus increased cloud or light winds that would favor readings near 19°C. Updated high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 26?
Lowest temperature in London on August 26?
18°C 36%
19°C 29%
17°C 25%
16°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
5%
17°C
25%
18°C
36%
19°C
29%
20°C
4%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
18°C 36%
19°C 29%
17°C 25%
16°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
12°C or below
$23 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$15 Vol.
1%
15°C
$52 Vol.
1%
16°C
$163 Vol.
5%
17°C
$347 Vol.
25%
18°C
$1,117 Vol.
36%
19°C
$248 Vol.
29%
20°C
$96 Vol.
4%
21°C
$74 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$74 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts point to a London minimum near 18°C on August 26, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C. Following an exceptionally warm summer with minimum temperatures averaging 1.5°C above the long-term baseline, the region is transitioning toward more typical late-August conditions with reduced daytime heating and variable cloud cover that modulates nighttime radiative cooling. Key variables include the extent of clear skies, which could allow temperatures to dip toward 17°C, versus increased cloud or light winds that would favor readings near 19°C. Updated high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,234End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts point to a London minimum near 18°C on August 26, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C. Following an exceptionally warm summer with minimum temperatures averaging 1.5°C above the long-term baseline, the region is transitioning toward more typical late-August conditions with reduced daytime heating and variable cloud cover that modulates nighttime radiative cooling. Key variables include the extent of clear skies, which could allow temperatures to dip toward 17°C, versus increased cloud or light winds that would favor readings near 19°C. Updated high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,234End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts point to a London minimum near 18°C on August 26, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C. Following an exceptionally warm summer with minimum temperatures averaging 1.5°C above the long-term baseline, the region is transitioning toward more typical late-August conditions with reduced daytime heating and variable cloud cover that modulates nighttime radiative cooling. Key variables include the extent of clear skies, which could allow temperatures to dip toward 17°C, versus increased cloud or light winds that would favor readings near 19°C. Updated high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions