Forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate an overnight low in the upper 70s for Austin on August 25 under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds and dew points near 70°F, limiting radiational cooling. Persistent high pressure and above-normal 850 mb temperatures sustain the heat, though subtle drops in mid-level warmth noted in recent soundings introduce minor uncertainty. Historical August minima average near 72°F, yet current conditions favor warmer readings unless enhanced clear-sky cooling or light winds allow greater surface heat loss. These variables explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 72–79°F ranges, as traders weigh forecast confidence intervals against typical late-summer variability ahead of the next model update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 25?
74-75°F 31%
72-73°F 29%
78-79°F 24%
80-81°F 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
29%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
1%
74-75°F 31%
72-73°F 29%
78-79°F 24%
80-81°F 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
69°F or below
$85 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$1,359 Vol.
14%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
29%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
31%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
22%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
24%
80-81°F
$20 Vol.
24%
82-83°F
$15 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$145 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate an overnight low in the upper 70s for Austin on August 25 under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds and dew points near 70°F, limiting radiational cooling. Persistent high pressure and above-normal 850 mb temperatures sustain the heat, though subtle drops in mid-level warmth noted in recent soundings introduce minor uncertainty. Historical August minima average near 72°F, yet current conditions favor warmer readings unless enhanced clear-sky cooling or light winds allow greater surface heat loss. These variables explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 72–79°F ranges, as traders weigh forecast confidence intervals against typical late-summer variability ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,639End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate an overnight low in the upper 70s for Austin on August 25 under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds and dew points near 70°F, limiting radiational cooling. Persistent high pressure and above-normal 850 mb temperatures sustain the heat, though subtle drops in mid-level warmth noted in recent soundings introduce minor uncertainty. Historical August minima average near 72°F, yet current conditions favor warmer readings unless enhanced clear-sky cooling or light winds allow greater surface heat loss. These variables explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 72–79°F ranges, as traders weigh forecast confidence intervals against typical late-summer variability ahead of the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,639End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate an overnight low in the upper 70s for Austin on August 25 under mostly clear skies with light southerly winds and dew points near 70°F, limiting radiational cooling. Persistent high pressure and above-normal 850 mb temperatures sustain the heat, though subtle drops in mid-level warmth noted in recent soundings introduce minor uncertainty. Historical August minima average near 72°F, yet current conditions favor warmer readings unless enhanced clear-sky cooling or light winds allow greater surface heat loss. These variables explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 72–79°F ranges, as traders weigh forecast confidence intervals against typical late-summer variability ahead of the next model update cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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