Recent official forecasts and numerical weather prediction models place Wuhan's maximum temperature on August 25 near 36–38 °C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, supporting the tight market split between 37 °C and 38 °C. Strong daytime solar insolation combined with regional subsidence and low soil moisture is sustaining heat buildup, while urban heat-island effects and slight variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing can shift the observed peak by 1 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but small differences in timing of any localized showers or wind shifts introduce the uncertainty reflected in the closely matched leading probabilities. Updated model runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will further refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on August 25?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 25?
37°C 40%
38°C 40%
36°C 10%
39°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
10%
37°C
40%
38°C
40%
39°C
8%
40°C or higher
3%
37°C 40%
38°C 40%
36°C 10%
39°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
$133 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$265 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$597 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$596 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,020 Vol.
1%
35°C
$609 Vol.
4%
36°C
$963 Vol.
10%
37°C
$1,244 Vol.
40%
38°C
$1,180 Vol.
40%
39°C
$783 Vol.
8%
40°C or higher
$1,496 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and numerical weather prediction models place Wuhan's maximum temperature on August 25 near 36–38 °C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, supporting the tight market split between 37 °C and 38 °C. Strong daytime solar insolation combined with regional subsidence and low soil moisture is sustaining heat buildup, while urban heat-island effects and slight variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing can shift the observed peak by 1 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but small differences in timing of any localized showers or wind shifts introduce the uncertainty reflected in the closely matched leading probabilities. Updated model runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will further refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$8,885End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and numerical weather prediction models place Wuhan's maximum temperature on August 25 near 36–38 °C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, supporting the tight market split between 37 °C and 38 °C. Strong daytime solar insolation combined with regional subsidence and low soil moisture is sustaining heat buildup, while urban heat-island effects and slight variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing can shift the observed peak by 1 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but small differences in timing of any localized showers or wind shifts introduce the uncertainty reflected in the closely matched leading probabilities. Updated model runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will further refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,885End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts and numerical weather prediction models place Wuhan's maximum temperature on August 25 near 36–38 °C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, supporting the tight market split between 37 °C and 38 °C. Strong daytime solar insolation combined with regional subsidence and low soil moisture is sustaining heat buildup, while urban heat-island effects and slight variations in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing can shift the observed peak by 1 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but small differences in timing of any localized showers or wind shifts introduce the uncertainty reflected in the closely matched leading probabilities. Updated model runs and surface observations tomorrow morning will further refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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