**Forecast models place Wuhan's peak temperature on August 25 squarely between 36–38 °C, producing the near-even split between the 37 °C and 38 °C contracts at 39.5 % each.** Late-summer high pressure over the Yangtze basin favors strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies, while elevated humidity and light easterly winds moderate the exact maximum. Official guidance from the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and international ensembles shows highs of 36–37 °C, with some runs reaching 38 °C if afternoon convection remains suppressed. Minor differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and local urban heat-island effects create the tight uncertainty reflected in trader positioning, with the 36 °C outcome holding only 10 % implied probability. Updated model runs and any late-day satellite trends on August 25 will likely decide the final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on August 25?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 25?
37°C 41%
38°C 34%
36°C 12%
39°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
12%
37°C
41%
38°C
34%
39°C
9%
40°C or higher
8%
37°C 41%
38°C 34%
36°C 12%
39°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
$133 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$265 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$597 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$596 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,121 Vol.
1%
35°C
$611 Vol.
4%
36°C
$973 Vol.
12%
37°C
$1,276 Vol.
41%
38°C
$1,182 Vol.
34%
39°C
$784 Vol.
9%
40°C or higher
$2,055 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models place Wuhan's peak temperature on August 25 squarely between 36–38 °C, producing the near-even split between the 37 °C and 38 °C contracts at 39.5 % each.** Late-summer high pressure over the Yangtze basin favors strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies, while elevated humidity and light easterly winds moderate the exact maximum. Official guidance from the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and international ensembles shows highs of 36–37 °C, with some runs reaching 38 °C if afternoon convection remains suppressed. Minor differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and local urban heat-island effects create the tight uncertainty reflected in trader positioning, with the 36 °C outcome holding only 10 % implied probability. Updated model runs and any late-day satellite trends on August 25 will likely decide the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,593End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models place Wuhan's peak temperature on August 25 squarely between 36–38 °C, producing the near-even split between the 37 °C and 38 °C contracts at 39.5 % each.** Late-summer high pressure over the Yangtze basin favors strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies, while elevated humidity and light easterly winds moderate the exact maximum. Official guidance from the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and international ensembles shows highs of 36–37 °C, with some runs reaching 38 °C if afternoon convection remains suppressed. Minor differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and local urban heat-island effects create the tight uncertainty reflected in trader positioning, with the 36 °C outcome holding only 10 % implied probability. Updated model runs and any late-day satellite trends on August 25 will likely decide the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,593End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models place Wuhan's peak temperature on August 25 squarely between 36–38 °C, producing the near-even split between the 37 °C and 38 °C contracts at 39.5 % each.** Late-summer high pressure over the Yangtze basin favors strong diurnal heating under mostly clear skies, while elevated humidity and light easterly winds moderate the exact maximum. Official guidance from the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and international ensembles shows highs of 36–37 °C, with some runs reaching 38 °C if afternoon convection remains suppressed. Minor differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and local urban heat-island effects create the tight uncertainty reflected in trader positioning, with the 36 °C outcome holding only 10 % implied probability. Updated model runs and any late-day satellite trends on August 25 will likely decide the final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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