Persistent high pressure and light winds across the Istanbul region are anchoring ensemble forecasts from sources like ECMWF and GFS near a 28–29°C daily maximum for August 25, consistent with late-August climatological norms of 28–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with potential afternoon sea breezes and elevated humidity, frequently caps peaks below 30°C despite sunny conditions. Recent short-range model runs show tight agreement on this narrow band, with limited spread from subsidence strength, which explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 28°C at 62.5% implied probability. Updated deterministic runs ahead of resolution remain the key variable that could shift odds toward 29°C or 27°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 25?
28°C 61%
27°C 23%
29°C 14%
30°C <1%
NEW
$13,002 Vol.
NEW
$13,002 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
23%
28°C
61%
29°C
14%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 61%
27°C 23%
29°C 14%
30°C <1%
NEW
$13,002 Vol.
NEW
$13,002 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$354 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$345 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$259 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$769 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,666 Vol.
23%
28°C
$3,457 Vol.
61%
29°C
$725 Vol.
14%
30°C
$759 Vol.
1%
31°C
$655 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$928 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$3,086 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and light winds across the Istanbul region are anchoring ensemble forecasts from sources like ECMWF and GFS near a 28–29°C daily maximum for August 25, consistent with late-August climatological norms of 28–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with potential afternoon sea breezes and elevated humidity, frequently caps peaks below 30°C despite sunny conditions. Recent short-range model runs show tight agreement on this narrow band, with limited spread from subsidence strength, which explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 28°C at 62.5% implied probability. Updated deterministic runs ahead of resolution remain the key variable that could shift odds toward 29°C or 27°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$13,002End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and light winds across the Istanbul region are anchoring ensemble forecasts from sources like ECMWF and GFS near a 28–29°C daily maximum for August 25, consistent with late-August climatological norms of 28–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with potential afternoon sea breezes and elevated humidity, frequently caps peaks below 30°C despite sunny conditions. Recent short-range model runs show tight agreement on this narrow band, with limited spread from subsidence strength, which explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 28°C at 62.5% implied probability. Updated deterministic runs ahead of resolution remain the key variable that could shift odds toward 29°C or 27°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,002End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and light winds across the Istanbul region are anchoring ensemble forecasts from sources like ECMWF and GFS near a 28–29°C daily maximum for August 25, consistent with late-August climatological norms of 28–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, combined with potential afternoon sea breezes and elevated humidity, frequently caps peaks below 30°C despite sunny conditions. Recent short-range model runs show tight agreement on this narrow band, with limited spread from subsidence strength, which explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 28°C at 62.5% implied probability. Updated deterministic runs ahead of resolution remain the key variable that could shift odds toward 29°C or 27°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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