**Trader sentiment for Chongqing’s August 26 daily maximum temperature centers on the 37–39 °C range, with the 38 °C outcome holding a slim lead at 34.5 % implied probability.** Recent model runs and observational data show the city under persistent late-summer subtropical high pressure, with daytime highs on the preceding days (including an official 37 °C on August 23) already in this band. Short-range forecasts from sources such as timeanddate.com project a sunny 37 °C peak for the 26th, while others indicate slightly more cloud cover that could cap readings near 35 °C. The tight clustering of probabilities around 37–39 °C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the final 48 hours: modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud development, or the precise timing of any weak trough passage can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology for Chongqing places typical maxima between 34–38 °C, so current conditions sit near the upper end of the normal envelope but remain within the envelope of interannual variability. Upcoming official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated high-resolution model runs will likely tighten the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on August 26?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 26?
38°C 34%
39°C 27%
37°C 20%
40°C 7.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
7%
37°C
20%
38°C
34%
39°C
27%
40°C
7%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
38°C 34%
39°C 27%
37°C 20%
40°C 7.5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
32°C or below
$101 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$256 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$738 Vol.
2%
35°C
$304 Vol.
4%
36°C
$244 Vol.
7%
37°C
$347 Vol.
20%
38°C
$125 Vol.
34%
39°C
$362 Vol.
27%
40°C
$350 Vol.
7%
41°C
$3 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$3 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chongqing’s August 26 daily maximum temperature centers on the 37–39 °C range, with the 38 °C outcome holding a slim lead at 34.5 % implied probability.**
Recent model runs and observational data show the city under persistent late-summer subtropical high pressure, with daytime highs on the preceding days (including an official 37 °C on August 23) already in this band. Short-range forecasts from sources such as timeanddate.com project a sunny 37 °C peak for the 26th, while others indicate slightly more cloud cover that could cap readings near 35 °C. The tight clustering of probabilities around 37–39 °C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the final 48 hours: modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud development, or the precise timing of any weak trough passage can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology for Chongqing places typical maxima between 34–38 °C, so current conditions sit near the upper end of the normal envelope but remain within the envelope of interannual variability.
Upcoming official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated high-resolution model runs will likely tighten the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,833End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chongqing’s August 26 daily maximum temperature centers on the 37–39 °C range, with the 38 °C outcome holding a slim lead at 34.5 % implied probability.**
Recent model runs and observational data show the city under persistent late-summer subtropical high pressure, with daytime highs on the preceding days (including an official 37 °C on August 23) already in this band. Short-range forecasts from sources such as timeanddate.com project a sunny 37 °C peak for the 26th, while others indicate slightly more cloud cover that could cap readings near 35 °C. The tight clustering of probabilities around 37–39 °C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the final 48 hours: modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud development, or the precise timing of any weak trough passage can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology for Chongqing places typical maxima between 34–38 °C, so current conditions sit near the upper end of the normal envelope but remain within the envelope of interannual variability.
Upcoming official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated high-resolution model runs will likely tighten the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,833End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Chongqing’s August 26 daily maximum temperature centers on the 37–39 °C range, with the 38 °C outcome holding a slim lead at 34.5 % implied probability.** Recent model runs and observational data show the city under persistent late-summer subtropical high pressure, with daytime highs on the preceding days (including an official 37 °C on August 23) already in this band. Short-range forecasts from sources such as timeanddate.com project a sunny 37 °C peak for the 26th, while others indicate slightly more cloud cover that could cap readings near 35 °C. The tight clustering of probabilities around 37–39 °C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the final 48 hours: modest differences in boundary-layer moisture, afternoon convective cloud development, or the precise timing of any weak trough passage can shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology for Chongqing places typical maxima between 34–38 °C, so current conditions sit near the upper end of the normal envelope but remain within the envelope of interannual variability. Upcoming official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated high-resolution model runs will likely tighten the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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