Forecast models from NOAA and private sources converge on a peak temperature of 100–104°F for Austin on August 25, with the 102–103°F bin holding the highest implied probability due to ongoing southerly flow, mostly clear skies, and strong daytime insolation under a persistent high-pressure ridge. Recent observations show Austin Camp Mabry and Bergstrom reaching 104–107°F earlier in the week, establishing a hot baseline that supports elevated but not record-shattering readings tomorrow. Light winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s will limit extreme heat-index amplification while allowing efficient surface heating. Traders appear to weigh the slight cooling trend from recent peaks against the risk of model under- or over-forecasting by 1–2°F, with updates from the National Weather Service expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 25?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 25?
102-103°F 56%
100-101°F 20%
104-105°F 19%
106-107°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
20%
102-103°F
56%
104-105°F
19%
106-107°F
5%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
102-103°F 56%
100-101°F 20%
104-105°F 19%
106-107°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
95°F or below
$164 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$145 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$943 Vol.
<1%
100-101°F
$713 Vol.
20%
102-103°F
$963 Vol.
56%
104-105°F
$519 Vol.
19%
106-107°F
$334 Vol.
5%
108-109°F
$167 Vol.
<1%
110-111°F
$200 Vol.
<1%
112-113°F
$345 Vol.
<1%
114°F or higher
$175 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and private sources converge on a peak temperature of 100–104°F for Austin on August 25, with the 102–103°F bin holding the highest implied probability due to ongoing southerly flow, mostly clear skies, and strong daytime insolation under a persistent high-pressure ridge. Recent observations show Austin Camp Mabry and Bergstrom reaching 104–107°F earlier in the week, establishing a hot baseline that supports elevated but not record-shattering readings tomorrow. Light winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s will limit extreme heat-index amplification while allowing efficient surface heating. Traders appear to weigh the slight cooling trend from recent peaks against the risk of model under- or over-forecasting by 1–2°F, with updates from the National Weather Service expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$4,667End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from NOAA and private sources converge on a peak temperature of 100–104°F for Austin on August 25, with the 102–103°F bin holding the highest implied probability due to ongoing southerly flow, mostly clear skies, and strong daytime insolation under a persistent high-pressure ridge. Recent observations show Austin Camp Mabry and Bergstrom reaching 104–107°F earlier in the week, establishing a hot baseline that supports elevated but not record-shattering readings tomorrow. Light winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s will limit extreme heat-index amplification while allowing efficient surface heating. Traders appear to weigh the slight cooling trend from recent peaks against the risk of model under- or over-forecasting by 1–2°F, with updates from the National Weather Service expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,667End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from NOAA and private sources converge on a peak temperature of 100–104°F for Austin on August 25, with the 102–103°F bin holding the highest implied probability due to ongoing southerly flow, mostly clear skies, and strong daytime insolation under a persistent high-pressure ridge. Recent observations show Austin Camp Mabry and Bergstrom reaching 104–107°F earlier in the week, establishing a hot baseline that supports elevated but not record-shattering readings tomorrow. Light winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s will limit extreme heat-index amplification while allowing efficient surface heating. Traders appear to weigh the slight cooling trend from recent peaks against the risk of model under- or over-forecasting by 1–2°F, with updates from the National Weather Service expected overnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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