Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate a sunny, hot day in Austin on August 25 with a projected high near 104°F under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover or moisture. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 102–103°F (55.5% implied probability) and nearby bins, as daytime heating under clear skies and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s support peak readings in that range. Recent observations show Austin Camp Mabry hitting 107°F on August 22 amid an ongoing heat advisory, with August 24 highs near 103–104°F and no significant cooling expected before the 25th. Low rain chances and stable upper-level patterns limit upside risk beyond 105°F while capping downside below 100°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the key data points for final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 25?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 25?
102-103°F 56%
100-101°F 20%
104-105°F 19%
106-107°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
1%
100-101°F
20%
102-103°F
56%
104-105°F
19%
106-107°F
4%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
102-103°F 56%
100-101°F 20%
104-105°F 19%
106-107°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
95°F or below
$164 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$145 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$943 Vol.
1%
100-101°F
$728 Vol.
20%
102-103°F
$968 Vol.
56%
104-105°F
$519 Vol.
19%
106-107°F
$334 Vol.
4%
108-109°F
$167 Vol.
<1%
110-111°F
$200 Vol.
<1%
112-113°F
$345 Vol.
<1%
114°F or higher
$175 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate a sunny, hot day in Austin on August 25 with a projected high near 104°F under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover or moisture. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 102–103°F (55.5% implied probability) and nearby bins, as daytime heating under clear skies and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s support peak readings in that range. Recent observations show Austin Camp Mabry hitting 107°F on August 22 amid an ongoing heat advisory, with August 24 highs near 103–104°F and no significant cooling expected before the 25th. Low rain chances and stable upper-level patterns limit upside risk beyond 105°F while capping downside below 100°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the key data points for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$4,687End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate a sunny, hot day in Austin on August 25 with a projected high near 104°F under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover or moisture. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 102–103°F (55.5% implied probability) and nearby bins, as daytime heating under clear skies and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s support peak readings in that range. Recent observations show Austin Camp Mabry hitting 107°F on August 22 amid an ongoing heat advisory, with August 24 highs near 103–104°F and no significant cooling expected before the 25th. Low rain chances and stable upper-level patterns limit upside risk beyond 105°F while capping downside below 100°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the key data points for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,687End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate a sunny, hot day in Austin on August 25 with a projected high near 104°F under southerly flow and minimal cloud cover or moisture. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 102–103°F (55.5% implied probability) and nearby bins, as daytime heating under clear skies and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s support peak readings in that range. Recent observations show Austin Camp Mabry hitting 107°F on August 22 amid an ongoing heat advisory, with August 24 highs near 103–104°F and no significant cooling expected before the 25th. Low rain chances and stable upper-level patterns limit upside risk beyond 105°F while capping downside below 100°F. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the key data points for final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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