Current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near the lower end of recent years through mid-August 2026, with July averaging 8.29 million sq km (joint fifth-lowest) and early August at 7.02 million sq km. Trader consensus, reflected in closely matched market-implied odds for the 4.4–4.8 million sq km bins, stems from thin first-year ice dominance and long-term Arctic amplification, offset by regional variability in melt rates across the Kara, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. Key differentiating factors include model spreads in remaining summer melt, atmospheric steering patterns, and ocean heat content that could push the September minimum above or below 4.5 million sq km. Updated forecasts and daily extent reports through early September will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.6-4.8m sq km 35.9%
4.4-4.6m sq km 31.1%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.0%
4.0-4.2m sq km 8.9%
$68,843 Vol.
$68,843 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
8%
4.0-4.2m sq km
9%
4.2-4.4m sq km
15%
4.4-4.6m sq km
38%
4.6-4.8m sq km
36%
4.8-5m sq km
5%
5m+ sq km
3%
4.6-4.8m sq km 35.9%
4.4-4.6m sq km 31.1%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.0%
4.0-4.2m sq km 8.9%
$68,843 Vol.
$68,843 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,910 Vol.
8%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,738 Vol.
9%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,116 Vol.
15%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,133 Vol.
38%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,888 Vol.
36%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,555 Vol.
5%
5m+ sq km
$14,503 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near the lower end of recent years through mid-August 2026, with July averaging 8.29 million sq km (joint fifth-lowest) and early August at 7.02 million sq km. Trader consensus, reflected in closely matched market-implied odds for the 4.4–4.8 million sq km bins, stems from thin first-year ice dominance and long-term Arctic amplification, offset by regional variability in melt rates across the Kara, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. Key differentiating factors include model spreads in remaining summer melt, atmospheric steering patterns, and ocean heat content that could push the September minimum above or below 4.5 million sq km. Updated forecasts and daily extent reports through early September will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$68,843End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near the lower end of recent years through mid-August 2026, with July averaging 8.29 million sq km (joint fifth-lowest) and early August at 7.02 million sq km. Trader consensus, reflected in closely matched market-implied odds for the 4.4–4.8 million sq km bins, stems from thin first-year ice dominance and long-term Arctic amplification, offset by regional variability in melt rates across the Kara, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. Key differentiating factors include model spreads in remaining summer melt, atmospheric steering patterns, and ocean heat content that could push the September minimum above or below 4.5 million sq km. Updated forecasts and daily extent reports through early September will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,843End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF show Arctic sea ice extent tracking near the lower end of recent years through mid-August 2026, with July averaging 8.29 million sq km (joint fifth-lowest) and early August at 7.02 million sq km. Trader consensus, reflected in closely matched market-implied odds for the 4.4–4.8 million sq km bins, stems from thin first-year ice dominance and long-term Arctic amplification, offset by regional variability in melt rates across the Kara, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. Key differentiating factors include model spreads in remaining summer melt, atmospheric steering patterns, and ocean heat content that could push the September minimum above or below 4.5 million sq km. Updated forecasts and daily extent reports through early September will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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