Recent forecasts under a dominant high-pressure system indicate clear to mostly clear skies over Warsaw on August 26, supporting strong nocturnal radiative cooling and light northeast winds that favor minimum temperatures near 11–13°C. Model consensus from sources like IMGW and European guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing in this range after daytime highs of 24–25°C, consistent with late-August climatology where clear anticyclonic conditions often produce readings 1–3°C below seasonal averages. Trader clustering around 11–13°C reflects minor divergences in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any thin high cloud, which could modestly limit cooling, while the absence of approaching fronts or significant wind keeps probabilities tightly grouped and away from extremes below 10°C or above 14°C. Updated model runs overnight will refine the precise minimum ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
11°C 30%
12°C 27%
13°C 26%
10°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
7°C or below
9%
8°C
7%
9°C
12%
10°C
23%
11°C
30%
12°C
27%
13°C
26%
14°C
8%
15°C
1%
16°C
8%
17°C or higher
7%
11°C 30%
12°C 27%
13°C 26%
10°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
9%
8°C
$75 Vol.
7%
9°C
$0 Vol.
12%
10°C
$0 Vol.
23%
11°C
$0 Vol.
30%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$40 Vol.
8%
15°C
$0 Vol.
1%
16°C
$70 Vol.
8%
17°C or higher
$135 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts under a dominant high-pressure system indicate clear to mostly clear skies over Warsaw on August 26, supporting strong nocturnal radiative cooling and light northeast winds that favor minimum temperatures near 11–13°C. Model consensus from sources like IMGW and European guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing in this range after daytime highs of 24–25°C, consistent with late-August climatology where clear anticyclonic conditions often produce readings 1–3°C below seasonal averages. Trader clustering around 11–13°C reflects minor divergences in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any thin high cloud, which could modestly limit cooling, while the absence of approaching fronts or significant wind keeps probabilities tightly grouped and away from extremes below 10°C or above 14°C. Updated model runs overnight will refine the precise minimum ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$325End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts under a dominant high-pressure system indicate clear to mostly clear skies over Warsaw on August 26, supporting strong nocturnal radiative cooling and light northeast winds that favor minimum temperatures near 11–13°C. Model consensus from sources like IMGW and European guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing in this range after daytime highs of 24–25°C, consistent with late-August climatology where clear anticyclonic conditions often produce readings 1–3°C below seasonal averages. Trader clustering around 11–13°C reflects minor divergences in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any thin high cloud, which could modestly limit cooling, while the absence of approaching fronts or significant wind keeps probabilities tightly grouped and away from extremes below 10°C or above 14°C. Updated model runs overnight will refine the precise minimum ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$325End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts under a dominant high-pressure system indicate clear to mostly clear skies over Warsaw on August 26, supporting strong nocturnal radiative cooling and light northeast winds that favor minimum temperatures near 11–13°C. Model consensus from sources like IMGW and European guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing in this range after daytime highs of 24–25°C, consistent with late-August climatology where clear anticyclonic conditions often produce readings 1–3°C below seasonal averages. Trader clustering around 11–13°C reflects minor divergences in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of any thin high cloud, which could modestly limit cooling, while the absence of approaching fronts or significant wind keeps probabilities tightly grouped and away from extremes below 10°C or above 14°C. Updated model runs overnight will refine the precise minimum ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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