Recent forecasts from IMGW and multiple numerical models indicate Warsaw will remain under a strengthening high-pressure system on August 26, delivering clear to mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and cloud cover. This setup supports afternoon maxima clustered between 22–24 °C, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22 °C and 23 °C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in boundary-layer warming but little risk of either pronounced cooling or rapid advection of warmer air from the south, keeping probabilities for 25 °C or higher below 3 %. With resolution occurring tomorrow, the next 12–18 h model updates and any observed boundary-layer trends will determine whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of the favored range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
23°C 46%
22°C 33%
24°C 16%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
33%
23°C
46%
24°C
16%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
23°C 46%
22°C 33%
24°C 16%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
$200 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$148 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$282 Vol.
2%
21°C
$278 Vol.
5%
22°C
$242 Vol.
33%
23°C
$353 Vol.
46%
24°C
$808 Vol.
16%
25°C
$276 Vol.
3%
26°C
$237 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from IMGW and multiple numerical models indicate Warsaw will remain under a strengthening high-pressure system on August 26, delivering clear to mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and cloud cover. This setup supports afternoon maxima clustered between 22–24 °C, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22 °C and 23 °C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in boundary-layer warming but little risk of either pronounced cooling or rapid advection of warmer air from the south, keeping probabilities for 25 °C or higher below 3 %. With resolution occurring tomorrow, the next 12–18 h model updates and any observed boundary-layer trends will determine whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of the favored range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,975End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from IMGW and multiple numerical models indicate Warsaw will remain under a strengthening high-pressure system on August 26, delivering clear to mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and cloud cover. This setup supports afternoon maxima clustered between 22–24 °C, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22 °C and 23 °C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in boundary-layer warming but little risk of either pronounced cooling or rapid advection of warmer air from the south, keeping probabilities for 25 °C or higher below 3 %. With resolution occurring tomorrow, the next 12–18 h model updates and any observed boundary-layer trends will determine whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of the favored range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,975End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from IMGW and multiple numerical models indicate Warsaw will remain under a strengthening high-pressure system on August 26, delivering clear to mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and cloud cover. This setup supports afternoon maxima clustered between 22–24 °C, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22 °C and 23 °C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in boundary-layer warming but little risk of either pronounced cooling or rapid advection of warmer air from the south, keeping probabilities for 25 °C or higher below 3 %. With resolution occurring tomorrow, the next 12–18 h model updates and any observed boundary-layer trends will determine whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of the favored range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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