Persistent marine layer conditions along the central California coast are anchoring trader consensus around a 56–59°F low for San Francisco on August 25. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show a shallow-to-moderately deep marine layer (roughly 1,000–1,500 ft) supporting patchy stratus and light onshore flow that limits radiational cooling, keeping overnight minima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 57°F. Recent forecast discussions note stable troughing that prevents significant warming or layer erosion, reducing upside risk above 60°F while also capping the chance of stronger cooling below 56°F. With resolution imminent, the next NWS update and any last-minute marine layer adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts for price movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
58-59°F 49%
60-61°F 28%
56-57°F 23%
49°F or below 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
17%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
8%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
23%
58-59°F
49%
60-61°F
28%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68°F or higher
2%
58-59°F 49%
60-61°F 28%
56-57°F 23%
49°F or below 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
$10 Vol.
17%
50-51°F
$75 Vol.
1%
52-53°F
$91 Vol.
8%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
12%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
23%
58-59°F
$17 Vol.
49%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
28%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
11%
64-65°F
$90 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$10 Vol.
1%
68°F or higher
$140 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer conditions along the central California coast are anchoring trader consensus around a 56–59°F low for San Francisco on August 25. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show a shallow-to-moderately deep marine layer (roughly 1,000–1,500 ft) supporting patchy stratus and light onshore flow that limits radiational cooling, keeping overnight minima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 57°F. Recent forecast discussions note stable troughing that prevents significant warming or layer erosion, reducing upside risk above 60°F while also capping the chance of stronger cooling below 56°F. With resolution imminent, the next NWS update and any last-minute marine layer adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts for price movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$433End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer conditions along the central California coast are anchoring trader consensus around a 56–59°F low for San Francisco on August 25. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show a shallow-to-moderately deep marine layer (roughly 1,000–1,500 ft) supporting patchy stratus and light onshore flow that limits radiational cooling, keeping overnight minima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 57°F. Recent forecast discussions note stable troughing that prevents significant warming or layer erosion, reducing upside risk above 60°F while also capping the chance of stronger cooling below 56°F. With resolution imminent, the next NWS update and any last-minute marine layer adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts for price movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$433End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent marine layer conditions along the central California coast are anchoring trader consensus around a 56–59°F low for San Francisco on August 25. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show a shallow-to-moderately deep marine layer (roughly 1,000–1,500 ft) supporting patchy stratus and light onshore flow that limits radiational cooling, keeping overnight minima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 57°F. Recent forecast discussions note stable troughing that prevents significant warming or layer erosion, reducing upside risk above 60°F while also capping the chance of stronger cooling below 56°F. With resolution imminent, the next NWS update and any last-minute marine layer adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts for price movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions