**Current numerical weather models project an overnight minimum near 26°C for Jinan on August 25, driven by persistent warm southerly flow, high humidity, and only partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling.** Recent days have featured similar conditions with lows in the mid-20s °C amid a warmer-than-average August pattern across northern China. Light winds and urban heat effects in the city further support elevated minima, aligning with the 52.5% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing or localized showers could allow slight cooling toward 21–22°C, which accounts for the closely matched 47% odds on the 18–21°C outcomes, though probabilities for sub-18°C remain negligible given the absence of any approaching cold front or significant synoptic shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Jinan on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Jinan on August 25?
18°C 94%
19°C 94%
20°C 94%
21°C 94%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
94%
19°C
94%
20°C
94%
21°C
94%
22°C or higher
52%
18°C 94%
19°C 94%
20°C 94%
21°C 94%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
$115 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$427 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$11 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5 Vol.
94%
19°C
$135 Vol.
94%
20°C
$5 Vol.
94%
21°C
$135 Vol.
94%
22°C or higher
$871 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current numerical weather models project an overnight minimum near 26°C for Jinan on August 25, driven by persistent warm southerly flow, high humidity, and only partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling.**
Recent days have featured similar conditions with lows in the mid-20s °C amid a warmer-than-average August pattern across northern China. Light winds and urban heat effects in the city further support elevated minima, aligning with the 52.5% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing or localized showers could allow slight cooling toward 21–22°C, which accounts for the closely matched 47% odds on the 18–21°C outcomes, though probabilities for sub-18°C remain negligible given the absence of any approaching cold front or significant synoptic shift.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,719End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current numerical weather models project an overnight minimum near 26°C for Jinan on August 25, driven by persistent warm southerly flow, high humidity, and only partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling.**
Recent days have featured similar conditions with lows in the mid-20s °C amid a warmer-than-average August pattern across northern China. Light winds and urban heat effects in the city further support elevated minima, aligning with the 52.5% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing or localized showers could allow slight cooling toward 21–22°C, which accounts for the closely matched 47% odds on the 18–21°C outcomes, though probabilities for sub-18°C remain negligible given the absence of any approaching cold front or significant synoptic shift.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,719End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current numerical weather models project an overnight minimum near 26°C for Jinan on August 25, driven by persistent warm southerly flow, high humidity, and only partial cloud cover that limits radiative cooling.** Recent days have featured similar conditions with lows in the mid-20s °C amid a warmer-than-average August pattern across northern China. Light winds and urban heat effects in the city further support elevated minima, aligning with the 52.5% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing or localized showers could allow slight cooling toward 21–22°C, which accounts for the closely matched 47% odds on the 18–21°C outcomes, though probabilities for sub-18°C remain negligible given the absence of any approaching cold front or significant synoptic shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions