Elevated tornado activity through mid-August 2026, with over 1,166 confirmed U.S. touchdowns already logged by NOAA and the Storm Prediction Center, underpins the 87.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ annual total. Illinois alone has shattered records with more than 200 confirmed events—over triple its long-term average—reflecting an eastward shift in the primary tornado corridor toward the Midwest and Southeast documented in recent climatological analyses. While the historical U.S. mean hovers near 1,200–1,400 per year and late-year activity typically declines, the strong start and ongoing environmental conditions supportive of supercell development keep the higher bins heavily favored by traders. Updated NCEI monthly reports and any late-season outbreaks remain key variables that could influence final tallies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 88%
1200–1249 6.8%
1150–1199 5.6%
1100–1149 2.8%
$81,898 Vol.
$81,898 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
3%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
6%
1200–1249
7%
1250+
88%
1250+ 88%
1200–1249 6.8%
1150–1199 5.6%
1100–1149 2.8%
$81,898 Vol.
$81,898 Vol.
Jan 9, 2027
<950
$23,720 Vol.
3%
950–999
$3,618 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
6%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
7%
1250+
$18,689 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated tornado activity through mid-August 2026, with over 1,166 confirmed U.S. touchdowns already logged by NOAA and the Storm Prediction Center, underpins the 87.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ annual total. Illinois alone has shattered records with more than 200 confirmed events—over triple its long-term average—reflecting an eastward shift in the primary tornado corridor toward the Midwest and Southeast documented in recent climatological analyses. While the historical U.S. mean hovers near 1,200–1,400 per year and late-year activity typically declines, the strong start and ongoing environmental conditions supportive of supercell development keep the higher bins heavily favored by traders. Updated NCEI monthly reports and any late-season outbreaks remain key variables that could influence final tallies.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$81,898End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated tornado activity through mid-August 2026, with over 1,166 confirmed U.S. touchdowns already logged by NOAA and the Storm Prediction Center, underpins the 87.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ annual total. Illinois alone has shattered records with more than 200 confirmed events—over triple its long-term average—reflecting an eastward shift in the primary tornado corridor toward the Midwest and Southeast documented in recent climatological analyses. While the historical U.S. mean hovers near 1,200–1,400 per year and late-year activity typically declines, the strong start and ongoing environmental conditions supportive of supercell development keep the higher bins heavily favored by traders. Updated NCEI monthly reports and any late-season outbreaks remain key variables that could influence final tallies.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$81,898End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated tornado activity through mid-August 2026, with over 1,166 confirmed U.S. touchdowns already logged by NOAA and the Storm Prediction Center, underpins the 87.5% market-implied probability for a 1,250+ annual total. Illinois alone has shattered records with more than 200 confirmed events—over triple its long-term average—reflecting an eastward shift in the primary tornado corridor toward the Midwest and Southeast documented in recent climatological analyses. While the historical U.S. mean hovers near 1,200–1,400 per year and late-year activity typically declines, the strong start and ongoing environmental conditions supportive of supercell development keep the higher bins heavily favored by traders. Updated NCEI monthly reports and any late-season outbreaks remain key variables that could influence final tallies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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