Clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions over central Europe are driving modest late-August temperatures in Warsaw, with official forecasts and model consensus pointing to a daily maximum of 22–23 °C under light northeast winds and minimal cloud cover. These conditions align closely with climatological norms for the date, when average highs reach about 21 °C, and recent observations show no significant warm advection or heatwave development to push values higher. The market’s heavy weighting toward 22 °C (48 %) and 23 °C (30 %) reflects this tight forecast range, while lower probabilities for 21 °C or 24 °C account for minor uncertainties in afternoon mixing or local measurement variations ahead of final daily records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 25?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 25?
22°C 48%
23°C 30%
21°C 20%
24°C 2%
NEW
$10,945 Vol.
NEW
$10,945 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
20%
22°C
48%
23°C
30%
24°C
2%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 48%
23°C 30%
21°C 20%
24°C 2%
NEW
$10,945 Vol.
NEW
$10,945 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
17°C or below
$341 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$225 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$492 Vol.
1%
20°C
$621 Vol.
1%
21°C
$2,194 Vol.
20%
22°C
$2,464 Vol.
48%
23°C
$2,544 Vol.
30%
24°C
$891 Vol.
2%
25°C
$426 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$570 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$178 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions over central Europe are driving modest late-August temperatures in Warsaw, with official forecasts and model consensus pointing to a daily maximum of 22–23 °C under light northeast winds and minimal cloud cover. These conditions align closely with climatological norms for the date, when average highs reach about 21 °C, and recent observations show no significant warm advection or heatwave development to push values higher. The market’s heavy weighting toward 22 °C (48 %) and 23 °C (30 %) reflects this tight forecast range, while lower probabilities for 21 °C or 24 °C account for minor uncertainties in afternoon mixing or local measurement variations ahead of final daily records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$10,945End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions over central Europe are driving modest late-August temperatures in Warsaw, with official forecasts and model consensus pointing to a daily maximum of 22–23 °C under light northeast winds and minimal cloud cover. These conditions align closely with climatological norms for the date, when average highs reach about 21 °C, and recent observations show no significant warm advection or heatwave development to push values higher. The market’s heavy weighting toward 22 °C (48 %) and 23 °C (30 %) reflects this tight forecast range, while lower probabilities for 21 °C or 24 °C account for minor uncertainties in afternoon mixing or local measurement variations ahead of final daily records.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,945End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies and stable high-pressure conditions over central Europe are driving modest late-August temperatures in Warsaw, with official forecasts and model consensus pointing to a daily maximum of 22–23 °C under light northeast winds and minimal cloud cover. These conditions align closely with climatological norms for the date, when average highs reach about 21 °C, and recent observations show no significant warm advection or heatwave development to push values higher. The market’s heavy weighting toward 22 °C (48 %) and 23 °C (30 %) reflects this tight forecast range, while lower probabilities for 21 °C or 24 °C account for minor uncertainties in afternoon mixing or local measurement variations ahead of final daily records.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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