Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory indicate scattered showers or thunderstorms on August 25, with highs of 34–35°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies following the end of the "san fu" period. These conditions favor lower peaks due to reduced solar insolation, evaporative cooling from precipitation, and higher humidity suppressing surface heating. Trader consensus around 36–37°C (over 65% combined) likely reflects uncertainty in rain timing and intensity, as lighter or localized convection could allow clearer intervals and stronger diurnal warming in the Sichuan Basin. Key variables include model consensus on convective development and any late-day clearing that might push maxima higher. Updated local radar and short-term guidance expected overnight will clarify resolution thresholds near 35–36°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
37°C 38%
36°C 29%
38°C 20%
35°C 8%
NEW
$14,680 Vol.
NEW
$14,680 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
3%
35°C
8%
36°C
29%
37°C
38%
38°C
20%
39°C
2%
40°C or higher
<1%
37°C 38%
36°C 29%
38°C 20%
35°C 8%
NEW
$14,680 Vol.
NEW
$14,680 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
$870 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$279 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,461 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,477 Vol.
3%
35°C
$1,515 Vol.
8%
36°C
$3,210 Vol.
29%
37°C
$1,790 Vol.
38%
38°C
$1,309 Vol.
20%
39°C
$1,566 Vol.
2%
40°C or higher
$1,068 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory indicate scattered showers or thunderstorms on August 25, with highs of 34–35°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies following the end of the "san fu" period. These conditions favor lower peaks due to reduced solar insolation, evaporative cooling from precipitation, and higher humidity suppressing surface heating. Trader consensus around 36–37°C (over 65% combined) likely reflects uncertainty in rain timing and intensity, as lighter or localized convection could allow clearer intervals and stronger diurnal warming in the Sichuan Basin. Key variables include model consensus on convective development and any late-day clearing that might push maxima higher. Updated local radar and short-term guidance expected overnight will clarify resolution thresholds near 35–36°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$14,680End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory indicate scattered showers or thunderstorms on August 25, with highs of 34–35°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies following the end of the "san fu" period. These conditions favor lower peaks due to reduced solar insolation, evaporative cooling from precipitation, and higher humidity suppressing surface heating. Trader consensus around 36–37°C (over 65% combined) likely reflects uncertainty in rain timing and intensity, as lighter or localized convection could allow clearer intervals and stronger diurnal warming in the Sichuan Basin. Key variables include model consensus on convective development and any late-day clearing that might push maxima higher. Updated local radar and short-term guidance expected overnight will clarify resolution thresholds near 35–36°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,680End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory indicate scattered showers or thunderstorms on August 25, with highs of 34–35°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies following the end of the "san fu" period. These conditions favor lower peaks due to reduced solar insolation, evaporative cooling from precipitation, and higher humidity suppressing surface heating. Trader consensus around 36–37°C (over 65% combined) likely reflects uncertainty in rain timing and intensity, as lighter or localized convection could allow clearer intervals and stronger diurnal warming in the Sichuan Basin. Key variables include model consensus on convective development and any late-day clearing that might push maxima higher. Updated local radar and short-term guidance expected overnight will clarify resolution thresholds near 35–36°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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