Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory project a high of 34–35°C on August 25 amid scattered showers or thunderstorms following the end of the "San Fu" period, with model runs emphasizing convective activity that typically caps daytime peaks through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This aligns with current basin-wide patterns of elevated humidity near 60–70% and light winds limiting further warming. Trader consensus favoring 36–37°C as the modal outcomes reflects uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, as localized suppression of convection could allow temperatures to briefly exceed guidance, consistent with occasional late-August analogs. Upcoming model updates from regional agencies will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
37°C 37%
36°C 30%
38°C 20%
35°C 9%
NEW
$14,477 Vol.
NEW
$14,477 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
3%
35°C
9%
36°C
30%
37°C
37%
38°C
20%
39°C
2%
40°C or higher
<1%
37°C 37%
36°C 30%
38°C 20%
35°C 9%
NEW
$14,477 Vol.
NEW
$14,477 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
30°C or below
$870 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$279 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,420 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,477 Vol.
3%
35°C
$1,481 Vol.
9%
36°C
$3,207 Vol.
30%
37°C
$1,776 Vol.
37%
38°C
$1,285 Vol.
20%
39°C
$1,478 Vol.
2%
40°C or higher
$1,068 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory project a high of 34–35°C on August 25 amid scattered showers or thunderstorms following the end of the "San Fu" period, with model runs emphasizing convective activity that typically caps daytime peaks through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This aligns with current basin-wide patterns of elevated humidity near 60–70% and light winds limiting further warming. Trader consensus favoring 36–37°C as the modal outcomes reflects uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, as localized suppression of convection could allow temperatures to briefly exceed guidance, consistent with occasional late-August analogs. Upcoming model updates from regional agencies will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$14,477End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory project a high of 34–35°C on August 25 amid scattered showers or thunderstorms following the end of the "San Fu" period, with model runs emphasizing convective activity that typically caps daytime peaks through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This aligns with current basin-wide patterns of elevated humidity near 60–70% and light winds limiting further warming. Trader consensus favoring 36–37°C as the modal outcomes reflects uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, as localized suppression of convection could allow temperatures to briefly exceed guidance, consistent with occasional late-August analogs. Upcoming model updates from regional agencies will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,477End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory project a high of 34–35°C on August 25 amid scattered showers or thunderstorms following the end of the "San Fu" period, with model runs emphasizing convective activity that typically caps daytime peaks through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This aligns with current basin-wide patterns of elevated humidity near 60–70% and light winds limiting further warming. Trader consensus favoring 36–37°C as the modal outcomes reflects uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity, as localized suppression of convection could allow temperatures to briefly exceed guidance, consistent with occasional late-August analogs. Upcoming model updates from regional agencies will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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