**Traders assign a 93.7% implied probability to “No” for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 because such events remain exceptionally rare, with global recurrence estimates of roughly 1–3 per century based on subduction-zone megathrust behavior.** USGS historical catalogs confirm only five instrumentally recorded M9+ events since 1900 (1960 Chile 9.5, 1964 Alaska 9.2, 1952 Kamchatka 9.0, 2004 Sumatra 9.1, 2011 Tohoku 9.1), and none since 2011. The most recent comparable event was the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake; 2026 activity has been limited to several M7.0–7.7 events whose rates fall within normal annual variation of 10–20 magnitude-7+ quakes. With only four months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, the short time window and absence of any current USGS or monitoring signals of imminent large rupture on high-strain subduction segments reinforce the strong market consensus. A sudden, unforeseen M9+ event on an unprepared megathrust segment remains the primary low-probability scenario that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% chance
$307,441 Vol.
$307,441 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
6% chance
$307,441 Vol.
$307,441 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Traders assign a 93.7% implied probability to “No” for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 because such events remain exceptionally rare, with global recurrence estimates of roughly 1–3 per century based on subduction-zone megathrust behavior.** USGS historical catalogs confirm only five instrumentally recorded M9+ events since 1900 (1960 Chile 9.5, 1964 Alaska 9.2, 1952 Kamchatka 9.0, 2004 Sumatra 9.1, 2011 Tohoku 9.1), and none since 2011. The most recent comparable event was the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake; 2026 activity has been limited to several M7.0–7.7 events whose rates fall within normal annual variation of 10–20 magnitude-7+ quakes. With only four months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, the short time window and absence of any current USGS or monitoring signals of imminent large rupture on high-strain subduction segments reinforce the strong market consensus. A sudden, unforeseen M9+ event on an unprepared megathrust segment remains the primary low-probability scenario that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$307,441End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Traders assign a 93.7% implied probability to “No” for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 because such events remain exceptionally rare, with global recurrence estimates of roughly 1–3 per century based on subduction-zone megathrust behavior.** USGS historical catalogs confirm only five instrumentally recorded M9+ events since 1900 (1960 Chile 9.5, 1964 Alaska 9.2, 1952 Kamchatka 9.0, 2004 Sumatra 9.1, 2011 Tohoku 9.1), and none since 2011. The most recent comparable event was the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake; 2026 activity has been limited to several M7.0–7.7 events whose rates fall within normal annual variation of 10–20 magnitude-7+ quakes. With only four months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, the short time window and absence of any current USGS or monitoring signals of imminent large rupture on high-strain subduction segments reinforce the strong market consensus. A sudden, unforeseen M9+ event on an unprepared megathrust segment remains the primary low-probability scenario that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$307,441End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 93.7% implied probability to “No” for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027 because such events remain exceptionally rare, with global recurrence estimates of roughly 1–3 per century based on subduction-zone megathrust behavior.** USGS historical catalogs confirm only five instrumentally recorded M9+ events since 1900 (1960 Chile 9.5, 1964 Alaska 9.2, 1952 Kamchatka 9.0, 2004 Sumatra 9.1, 2011 Tohoku 9.1), and none since 2011. The most recent comparable event was the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake; 2026 activity has been limited to several M7.0–7.7 events whose rates fall within normal annual variation of 10–20 magnitude-7+ quakes. With only four months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, the short time window and absence of any current USGS or monitoring signals of imminent large rupture on high-strain subduction segments reinforce the strong market consensus. A sudden, unforeseen M9+ event on an unprepared megathrust segment remains the primary low-probability scenario that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions