Rapid strengthening of the current El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C in Niño-3.4 and approaching +2.7°C in recent weekly data, underpins the 90.3% market-implied probability of a super El Niño this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports greater than 90% odds of a very strong event persisting through fall and winter 2026–27, consistent with dynamic model consensus including ECMWF projections of record intensity peaking October–January. Subsurface warmth and atmospheric indicators such as a deeply negative Southern Oscillation Index further support intensification beyond historical strong events like 1997–98. While model uncertainty and potential rapid weakening remain realistic risks that could alter outcomes, current observations and forecast agreement sustain strong trader conviction in a very strong classification by standard ENSO metrics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
90% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
90% chance
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Rapid strengthening of the current El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C in Niño-3.4 and approaching +2.7°C in recent weekly data, underpins the 90.3% market-implied probability of a super El Niño this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports greater than 90% odds of a very strong event persisting through fall and winter 2026–27, consistent with dynamic model consensus including ECMWF projections of record intensity peaking October–January. Subsurface warmth and atmospheric indicators such as a deeply negative Southern Oscillation Index further support intensification beyond historical strong events like 1997–98. While model uncertainty and potential rapid weakening remain realistic risks that could alter outcomes, current observations and forecast agreement sustain strong trader conviction in a very strong classification by standard ENSO metrics.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$6,822End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Rapid strengthening of the current El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C in Niño-3.4 and approaching +2.7°C in recent weekly data, underpins the 90.3% market-implied probability of a super El Niño this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports greater than 90% odds of a very strong event persisting through fall and winter 2026–27, consistent with dynamic model consensus including ECMWF projections of record intensity peaking October–January. Subsurface warmth and atmospheric indicators such as a deeply negative Southern Oscillation Index further support intensification beyond historical strong events like 1997–98. While model uncertainty and potential rapid weakening remain realistic risks that could alter outcomes, current observations and forecast agreement sustain strong trader conviction in a very strong classification by standard ENSO metrics.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$6,822End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid strengthening of the current El Niño event, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0°C in Niño-3.4 and approaching +2.7°C in recent weekly data, underpins the 90.3% market-implied probability of a super El Niño this winter. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports greater than 90% odds of a very strong event persisting through fall and winter 2026–27, consistent with dynamic model consensus including ECMWF projections of record intensity peaking October–January. Subsurface warmth and atmospheric indicators such as a deeply negative Southern Oscillation Index further support intensification beyond historical strong events like 1997–98. While model uncertainty and potential rapid weakening remain realistic risks that could alter outcomes, current observations and forecast agreement sustain strong trader conviction in a very strong classification by standard ENSO metrics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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