Recent rainfall across the Rhine catchment has lifted levels at the critical Kaub gauge from record lows near 5–25 cm in mid-August to roughly 67–73 cm as of August 24, with forecasts pointing to readings near or above 70 cm through early September. This rebound, following prolonged summer drought and heatwaves that produced the lowest flows in decades, underpins trader consensus favoring a swift return above the 77 cm equivalent-water-level threshold by September 1. Catchment saturation and upstream reservoir refill typically lag rainfall by weeks, limiting the speed of further gains, while below-normal Alpine precipitation over recent months sustains uncertainty about sustained normalization. Shipping operators report partial capacity restoration but still face restrictions, consistent with the market’s pricing of later windows as lower-probability outcomes.