Persistent cloud cover, showers, and squally thunderstorms tied to Tropical Cyclone Narra and an active southerly airstream are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling over Hong Kong, anchoring the August 26 minimum near the seasonal normal of about 26°C. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multiple forecast models converge on overnight lows of 26–27°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with high humidity near 90 percent, while Met Office and other ensembles indicate a 26°C floor and 29–30°C daytime peak. These conditions favor the market’s leading 27°C outcome at 41.5 percent implied probability, with 26°C and 28°C as secondary possibilities should steering flow or rain timing shift. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing remain the key near-term catalysts for any revision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 26?
27°C 43%
28°C 27%
26°C 12%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
11%
26°C
12%
27°C
43%
28°C
27%
29°C
8%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 43%
28°C 27%
26°C 12%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$31 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$31 Vol.
1%
24°C
$156 Vol.
5%
25°C
$36 Vol.
11%
26°C
$155 Vol.
12%
27°C
$174 Vol.
43%
28°C
$110 Vol.
27%
29°C
$106 Vol.
8%
30°C
$167 Vol.
1%
31°C
$271 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent cloud cover, showers, and squally thunderstorms tied to Tropical Cyclone Narra and an active southerly airstream are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling over Hong Kong, anchoring the August 26 minimum near the seasonal normal of about 26°C. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multiple forecast models converge on overnight lows of 26–27°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with high humidity near 90 percent, while Met Office and other ensembles indicate a 26°C floor and 29–30°C daytime peak. These conditions favor the market’s leading 27°C outcome at 41.5 percent implied probability, with 26°C and 28°C as secondary possibilities should steering flow or rain timing shift. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing remain the key near-term catalysts for any revision.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,267End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent cloud cover, showers, and squally thunderstorms tied to Tropical Cyclone Narra and an active southerly airstream are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling over Hong Kong, anchoring the August 26 minimum near the seasonal normal of about 26°C. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multiple forecast models converge on overnight lows of 26–27°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with high humidity near 90 percent, while Met Office and other ensembles indicate a 26°C floor and 29–30°C daytime peak. These conditions favor the market’s leading 27°C outcome at 41.5 percent implied probability, with 26°C and 28°C as secondary possibilities should steering flow or rain timing shift. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing remain the key near-term catalysts for any revision.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,267End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, showers, and squally thunderstorms tied to Tropical Cyclone Narra and an active southerly airstream are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling over Hong Kong, anchoring the August 26 minimum near the seasonal normal of about 26°C. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multiple forecast models converge on overnight lows of 26–27°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with high humidity near 90 percent, while Met Office and other ensembles indicate a 26°C floor and 29–30°C daytime peak. These conditions favor the market’s leading 27°C outcome at 41.5 percent implied probability, with 26°C and 28°C as secondary possibilities should steering flow or rain timing shift. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing remain the key near-term catalysts for any revision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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