Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 28°C on August 25 amid persistent southerly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling. Seasonal outlooks for August point to normal-to-above-normal temperatures with mean minimums historically around 27–28°C under similar late-summer conditions. This aligns with the market-implied 91% probability on 28°C as traders weigh the low likelihood of significant nocturnal drops. Clearer skies or an unexpected shift in steering winds could allow brief cooling toward 27°C, though model consensus shows limited potential for such deviations before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
28°C 91%
27°C 6%
26°C 3%
25°C 2.1%
NEW
$14,694 Vol.
NEW
$14,694 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
91%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 91%
27°C 6%
26°C 3%
25°C 2.1%
NEW
$14,694 Vol.
NEW
$14,694 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$390 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$741 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$791 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,057 Vol.
3%
27°C
$2,269 Vol.
6%
28°C
$2,359 Vol.
91%
29°C
$3,327 Vol.
1%
30°C
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$819 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,536 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 28°C on August 25 amid persistent southerly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling. Seasonal outlooks for August point to normal-to-above-normal temperatures with mean minimums historically around 27–28°C under similar late-summer conditions. This aligns with the market-implied 91% probability on 28°C as traders weigh the low likelihood of significant nocturnal drops. Clearer skies or an unexpected shift in steering winds could allow brief cooling toward 27°C, though model consensus shows limited potential for such deviations before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,694End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 28°C on August 25 amid persistent southerly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling. Seasonal outlooks for August point to normal-to-above-normal temperatures with mean minimums historically around 27–28°C under similar late-summer conditions. This aligns with the market-implied 91% probability on 28°C as traders weigh the low likelihood of significant nocturnal drops. Clearer skies or an unexpected shift in steering winds could allow brief cooling toward 27°C, though model consensus shows limited potential for such deviations before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,694End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate overnight lows stabilizing near 28°C on August 25 amid persistent southerly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling. Seasonal outlooks for August point to normal-to-above-normal temperatures with mean minimums historically around 27–28°C under similar late-summer conditions. This aligns with the market-implied 91% probability on 28°C as traders weigh the low likelihood of significant nocturnal drops. Clearer skies or an unexpected shift in steering winds could allow brief cooling toward 27°C, though model consensus shows limited potential for such deviations before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions