Above-normal tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific has driven trader consensus toward 8 or more landfalls in China for 2026, with Greater than 8 holding the highest implied probability. Twenty named systems have formed through mid-August—well above the long-term January–August average of roughly 13—producing multiple early landfalls including Bavi, Maysak, and Noul. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal models project 24–26 total genesis events and 7–9 landfalls nationally, exceeding the historical mean of 7–9. Peak season through September–October remains ahead, with El Niño influences potentially favoring northwestward tracks and higher intensity, though steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and late-season genesis introduce remaining uncertainty before CMA best-track resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 56%
8 22%
7 13%
6 9.3%
$15,180 Vol.
$15,180 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
1%
5
1%
6
9%
7
13%
8
22%
Greater than 8
56%
Greater than 8 56%
8 22%
7 13%
6 9.3%
$15,180 Vol.
$15,180 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$1,132 Vol.
1%
5
$4,119 Vol.
1%
6
$2,602 Vol.
9%
7
$1,459 Vol.
13%
8
$2,012 Vol.
22%
Greater than 8
$3,856 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-normal tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific has driven trader consensus toward 8 or more landfalls in China for 2026, with Greater than 8 holding the highest implied probability. Twenty named systems have formed through mid-August—well above the long-term January–August average of roughly 13—producing multiple early landfalls including Bavi, Maysak, and Noul. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal models project 24–26 total genesis events and 7–9 landfalls nationally, exceeding the historical mean of 7–9. Peak season through September–October remains ahead, with El Niño influences potentially favoring northwestward tracks and higher intensity, though steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and late-season genesis introduce remaining uncertainty before CMA best-track resolution.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$15,180End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-normal tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific has driven trader consensus toward 8 or more landfalls in China for 2026, with Greater than 8 holding the highest implied probability. Twenty named systems have formed through mid-August—well above the long-term January–August average of roughly 13—producing multiple early landfalls including Bavi, Maysak, and Noul. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal models project 24–26 total genesis events and 7–9 landfalls nationally, exceeding the historical mean of 7–9. Peak season through September–October remains ahead, with El Niño influences potentially favoring northwestward tracks and higher intensity, though steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and late-season genesis introduce remaining uncertainty before CMA best-track resolution.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$15,180End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-normal tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific has driven trader consensus toward 8 or more landfalls in China for 2026, with Greater than 8 holding the highest implied probability. Twenty named systems have formed through mid-August—well above the long-term January–August average of roughly 13—producing multiple early landfalls including Bavi, Maysak, and Noul. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal models project 24–26 total genesis events and 7–9 landfalls nationally, exceeding the historical mean of 7–9. Peak season through September–October remains ahead, with El Niño influences potentially favoring northwestward tracks and higher intensity, though steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and late-season genesis introduce remaining uncertainty before CMA best-track resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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