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icon for How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

icon for How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

1-3 39%

4-6 36%

0 13%

7+ 9%

Polymarket
NEW

1-3 39%

4-6 36%

0 13%

7+ 9%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$1,689 Vol.

13%

1-3

$1,407 Vol.

39%

4-6

$928 Vol.

36%

7+

$471 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.**Persistent El Niño conditions and suppressed early-season activity are the dominant drivers keeping the 1-3 and 4-6 hurricane bins tightly matched at 37.5% each.** As of August 24, 2026, the Atlantic has produced only three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal), all tropical storms with no hurricanes, yielding an extremely low Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 3.1—roughly 87% below the 1991-2020 average. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability to a below-normal season overall, forecasting 2-6 hurricanes for June–November. **Key differentiating factors center on peak-season (September–October) development potential.** Elevated vertical wind shear from the strengthening El Niño continues to disrupt organization and intensification, while Atlantic sea-surface temperatures remain only marginally supportive. Historical analogs show seasons with such quiet starts (e.g., 1988) rarely surge dramatically later when El Niño persists, supporting the modest 9% odds on 7+ hurricanes. At the same time, the climatological peak lies ahead, and any relaxation in shear or brief windows of favorable steering could allow 1–3 additional systems to reach hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale), keeping the 1-3 and 4-6 outcomes nearly equal in trader consensus. Near-term model guidance and official National Hurricane Center outlooks will be the next major catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$4,495
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.**Persistent El Niño conditions and suppressed early-season activity are the dominant drivers keeping the 1-3 and 4-6 hurricane bins tightly matched at 37.5% each.** As of August 24, 2026, the Atlantic has produced only three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal), all tropical storms with no hurricanes, yielding an extremely low Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 3.1—roughly 87% below the 1991-2020 average. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability to a below-normal season overall, forecasting 2-6 hurricanes for June–November. **Key differentiating factors center on peak-season (September–October) development potential.** Elevated vertical wind shear from the strengthening El Niño continues to disrupt organization and intensification, while Atlantic sea-surface temperatures remain only marginally supportive. Historical analogs show seasons with such quiet starts (e.g., 1988) rarely surge dramatically later when El Niño persists, supporting the modest 9% odds on 7+ hurricanes. At the same time, the climatological peak lies ahead, and any relaxation in shear or brief windows of favorable steering could allow 1–3 additional systems to reach hurricane strength (sustained winds ≥74 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale), keeping the 1-3 and 4-6 outcomes nearly equal in trader consensus. Near-term model guidance and official National Hurricane Center outlooks will be the next major catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$4,495
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1-3" at 39%, followed by "4-6" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" is "1-3" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4-6" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.