The market's strong "No" consensus reflects the current Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remaining regionally contained despite rapid growth since May 2026, with over 5,000 confirmed cases and a case fatality ratio near 47% per WHO and government reporting. Transmission is concentrated in Ituri and neighboring provinces amid conflict and mobility challenges, but imported cases in Uganda, France, and Germany have not produced sustained chains, and CDC/WHO assessments rate global risk as low. Official surveillance shows improving contact tracing and interrupted transmission in some zones, consistent with historical Ebola containment patterns short of pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from further undetected spread in insecure areas or substantial increases in international seeding before response scales.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$700,982 Vol.
$700,982 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$700,982 Vol.
$700,982 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market's strong "No" consensus reflects the current Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remaining regionally contained despite rapid growth since May 2026, with over 5,000 confirmed cases and a case fatality ratio near 47% per WHO and government reporting. Transmission is concentrated in Ituri and neighboring provinces amid conflict and mobility challenges, but imported cases in Uganda, France, and Germany have not produced sustained chains, and CDC/WHO assessments rate global risk as low. Official surveillance shows improving contact tracing and interrupted transmission in some zones, consistent with historical Ebola containment patterns short of pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from further undetected spread in insecure areas or substantial increases in international seeding before response scales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$700,982End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market's strong "No" consensus reflects the current Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remaining regionally contained despite rapid growth since May 2026, with over 5,000 confirmed cases and a case fatality ratio near 47% per WHO and government reporting. Transmission is concentrated in Ituri and neighboring provinces amid conflict and mobility challenges, but imported cases in Uganda, France, and Germany have not produced sustained chains, and CDC/WHO assessments rate global risk as low. Official surveillance shows improving contact tracing and interrupted transmission in some zones, consistent with historical Ebola containment patterns short of pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from further undetected spread in insecure areas or substantial increases in international seeding before response scales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$700,982End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market's strong "No" consensus reflects the current Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remaining regionally contained despite rapid growth since May 2026, with over 5,000 confirmed cases and a case fatality ratio near 47% per WHO and government reporting. Transmission is concentrated in Ituri and neighboring provinces amid conflict and mobility challenges, but imported cases in Uganda, France, and Germany have not produced sustained chains, and CDC/WHO assessments rate global risk as low. Official surveillance shows improving contact tracing and interrupted transmission in some zones, consistent with historical Ebola containment patterns short of pandemic thresholds. Realistic shifts could arise from further undetected spread in insecure areas or substantial increases in international seeding before response scales.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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