Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and Quaest in late August show a tight contest for Rio Grande do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Manuela d’Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), and Germano Rigotto (MDB) clustered within margins of error when combining first- and second-choice votes. High undecided shares (often 37% or more) and spontaneous responses exceeding 80% undecided sustain uncertainty over exact finishing order. Alliances tied to gubernatorial tickets, regional voting patterns across the state’s diverse electorate, and the requirement for voters to select two distinct candidates keep second-place probabilities closely matched. Late-campaign events, turnout differentials, or shifts in name recognition could alter rankings before the October 4 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarcel Van Hattem 35%
Manuela D'Ávila 30%
Pimenta 25%
Rigotto 13%
$20,331 Vol.
$20,331 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcel Van Hattem
35%
Manuela D'Ávila
30%
Pimenta
25%
Rigotto
13%
Sanderson
4%
Ric Jones
<1%
Frederico Antunes
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
<1%
Tania Peres
<1%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
<1%
Luciano do MLB
<1%
Milton Cardoso
<1%
Regis Ethur
<1%
Marcel Van Hattem 35%
Manuela D'Ávila 30%
Pimenta 25%
Rigotto 13%
$20,331 Vol.
$20,331 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marcel Van Hattem
$6,728 Vol.
35%
Manuela D'Ávila
$3,705 Vol.
30%
Pimenta
$2,066 Vol.
25%
Rigotto
$1,166 Vol.
13%
Sanderson
$977 Vol.
4%
Ric Jones
$677 Vol.
<1%
Frederico Antunes
$660 Vol.
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
$737 Vol.
<1%
Tania Peres
$1,002 Vol.
<1%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
$766 Vol.
<1%
Luciano do MLB
$1,089 Vol.
<1%
Milton Cardoso
$340 Vol.
<1%
Regis Ethur
$419 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and Quaest in late August show a tight contest for Rio Grande do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Manuela d’Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), and Germano Rigotto (MDB) clustered within margins of error when combining first- and second-choice votes. High undecided shares (often 37% or more) and spontaneous responses exceeding 80% undecided sustain uncertainty over exact finishing order. Alliances tied to gubernatorial tickets, regional voting patterns across the state’s diverse electorate, and the requirement for voters to select two distinct candidates keep second-place probabilities closely matched. Late-campaign events, turnout differentials, or shifts in name recognition could alter rankings before the October 4 election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Volume
$20,331End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and Quaest in late August show a tight contest for Rio Grande do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Manuela d’Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), and Germano Rigotto (MDB) clustered within margins of error when combining first- and second-choice votes. High undecided shares (often 37% or more) and spontaneous responses exceeding 80% undecided sustain uncertainty over exact finishing order. Alliances tied to gubernatorial tickets, regional voting patterns across the state’s diverse electorate, and the requirement for voters to select two distinct candidates keep second-place probabilities closely matched. Late-campaign events, turnout differentials, or shifts in name recognition could alter rankings before the October 4 election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,331End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and Quaest in late August show a tight contest for Rio Grande do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Manuela d’Ávila (PSOL), Marcel van Hattem (Novo), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), and Germano Rigotto (MDB) clustered within margins of error when combining first- and second-choice votes. High undecided shares (often 37% or more) and spontaneous responses exceeding 80% undecided sustain uncertainty over exact finishing order. Alliances tied to gubernatorial tickets, regional voting patterns across the state’s diverse electorate, and the requirement for voters to select two distinct candidates keep second-place probabilities closely matched. Late-campaign events, turnout differentials, or shifts in name recognition could alter rankings before the October 4 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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