The tight race for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), seeking re-election with 57% government approval in recent surveys, and challenger ACM Neto (União), the former Salvador mayor who narrowly lost the 2022 runoff. Late-July and August polling, including Genial/Quaest and others, shows the pair in technical tie in the first round (typically 38-43% each) within margins of error, with all other registered candidates below 5%. Both have consolidated broad coalitions ahead of the October 4 first round, and undecided or protest votes remain substantial. Trader pricing aligns with this competitive balance, where small shifts in turnout, campaign momentum in Salvador versus the interior, or late developments could decide whether the contest reaches a runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 49%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$118,105 Vol.
$118,105 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
53%
ACM Neto
49%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 49%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$118,105 Vol.
$118,105 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$37,601 Vol.
53%
ACM Neto
$40,512 Vol.
49%
Kleber Rosa
$12,814 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$10,920 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), seeking re-election with 57% government approval in recent surveys, and challenger ACM Neto (União), the former Salvador mayor who narrowly lost the 2022 runoff. Late-July and August polling, including Genial/Quaest and others, shows the pair in technical tie in the first round (typically 38-43% each) within margins of error, with all other registered candidates below 5%. Both have consolidated broad coalitions ahead of the October 4 first round, and undecided or protest votes remain substantial. Trader pricing aligns with this competitive balance, where small shifts in turnout, campaign momentum in Salvador versus the interior, or late developments could decide whether the contest reaches a runoff.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$118,105End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), seeking re-election with 57% government approval in recent surveys, and challenger ACM Neto (União), the former Salvador mayor who narrowly lost the 2022 runoff. Late-July and August polling, including Genial/Quaest and others, shows the pair in technical tie in the first round (typically 38-43% each) within margins of error, with all other registered candidates below 5%. Both have consolidated broad coalitions ahead of the October 4 first round, and undecided or protest votes remain substantial. Trader pricing aligns with this competitive balance, where small shifts in turnout, campaign momentum in Salvador versus the interior, or late developments could decide whether the contest reaches a runoff.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$118,105End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), seeking re-election with 57% government approval in recent surveys, and challenger ACM Neto (União), the former Salvador mayor who narrowly lost the 2022 runoff. Late-July and August polling, including Genial/Quaest and others, shows the pair in technical tie in the first round (typically 38-43% each) within margins of error, with all other registered candidates below 5%. Both have consolidated broad coalitions ahead of the October 4 first round, and undecided or protest votes remain substantial. Trader pricing aligns with this competitive balance, where small shifts in turnout, campaign momentum in Salvador versus the interior, or late developments could decide whether the contest reaches a runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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