Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds a modest edge in trader consensus for the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, while incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) trails and a fragmented field of other names registers minimal support. Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, Paraná Pesquisas, and MT Dados shows the two frontrunners in a technical tie or narrow Fagundes lead within margins of error, with figures typically ranging from the mid-20s to mid-30s in stimulated scenarios and high shares of undecided or blank responses. The contest remains competitive because both candidates draw from overlapping right-leaning voter bases in an agriculture-heavy state, party coalition negotiations continue to evolve, and multiple debates have produced no decisive shifts. Separation could emerge from clearer alliance announcements, turnout patterns among rural voters, or further surveys that widen the gap before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWellington Fagundes 55%
Otaviano Pivetta 40%
Rafaell Milas <1%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
$16,352 Vol.
$16,352 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
55%
Otaviano Pivetta
40%
Rafaell Milas
<1%
Mauricio Coelho
<1%
Doutora Natasha
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
<1%
Wellington Fagundes 55%
Otaviano Pivetta 40%
Rafaell Milas <1%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
$16,352 Vol.
$16,352 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
$10,721 Vol.
55%
Otaviano Pivetta
$2,537 Vol.
40%
Rafaell Milas
$869 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Coelho
$750 Vol.
<1%
Doutora Natasha
$786 Vol.
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
$689 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds a modest edge in trader consensus for the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, while incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) trails and a fragmented field of other names registers minimal support. Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, Paraná Pesquisas, and MT Dados shows the two frontrunners in a technical tie or narrow Fagundes lead within margins of error, with figures typically ranging from the mid-20s to mid-30s in stimulated scenarios and high shares of undecided or blank responses. The contest remains competitive because both candidates draw from overlapping right-leaning voter bases in an agriculture-heavy state, party coalition negotiations continue to evolve, and multiple debates have produced no decisive shifts. Separation could emerge from clearer alliance announcements, turnout patterns among rural voters, or further surveys that widen the gap before the vote.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ET
Volume
$16,352End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds a modest edge in trader consensus for the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, while incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) trails and a fragmented field of other names registers minimal support. Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, Paraná Pesquisas, and MT Dados shows the two frontrunners in a technical tie or narrow Fagundes lead within margins of error, with figures typically ranging from the mid-20s to mid-30s in stimulated scenarios and high shares of undecided or blank responses. The contest remains competitive because both candidates draw from overlapping right-leaning voter bases in an agriculture-heavy state, party coalition negotiations continue to evolve, and multiple debates have produced no decisive shifts. Separation could emerge from clearer alliance announcements, turnout patterns among rural voters, or further surveys that widen the gap before the vote.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,352End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds a modest edge in trader consensus for the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, while incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) trails and a fragmented field of other names registers minimal support. Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, Paraná Pesquisas, and MT Dados shows the two frontrunners in a technical tie or narrow Fagundes lead within margins of error, with figures typically ranging from the mid-20s to mid-30s in stimulated scenarios and high shares of undecided or blank responses. The contest remains competitive because both candidates draw from overlapping right-leaning voter bases in an agriculture-heavy state, party coalition negotiations continue to evolve, and multiple debates have produced no decisive shifts. Separation could emerge from clearer alliance announcements, turnout patterns among rural voters, or further surveys that widen the gap before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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