Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling advantages of over 30 points in recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys conducted after campaigns officially began. His incumbency, regional ties as a Northeast native, and federal government approval ratings near 62% in the state underpin trader consensus around 96.5% implied probability. Other registered candidates, including Flavio Bolsonaro, register in the low-to-mid 20s or single digits in state-level first-round simulations. Late developments such as an Amazon oil discovery or shifts in local alliances could influence turnout dynamics, though current margins suggest limited scope for rapid reversal absent major unforeseen events before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco
Lula 96.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Renan Santos <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Renan Santos
1%
Zema
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula 96.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Renan Santos <1%
Zema <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,621 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$382 Vol.
2%
Renan Santos
$267 Vol.
1%
Zema
$281 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$267 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$313 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$324 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$401 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$324 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$281 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$280 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$324 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$324 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling advantages of over 30 points in recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys conducted after campaigns officially began. His incumbency, regional ties as a Northeast native, and federal government approval ratings near 62% in the state underpin trader consensus around 96.5% implied probability. Other registered candidates, including Flavio Bolsonaro, register in the low-to-mid 20s or single digits in state-level first-round simulations. Late developments such as an Amazon oil discovery or shifts in local alliances could influence turnout dynamics, though current margins suggest limited scope for rapid reversal absent major unforeseen events before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$9,388End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling advantages of over 30 points in recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys conducted after campaigns officially began. His incumbency, regional ties as a Northeast native, and federal government approval ratings near 62% in the state underpin trader consensus around 96.5% implied probability. Other registered candidates, including Flavio Bolsonaro, register in the low-to-mid 20s or single digits in state-level first-round simulations. Late developments such as an Amazon oil discovery or shifts in local alliances could influence turnout dynamics, though current margins suggest limited scope for rapid reversal absent major unforeseen events before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,388End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pernambuco for first place in the 2026 Brazilian presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling advantages of over 30 points in recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys conducted after campaigns officially began. His incumbency, regional ties as a Northeast native, and federal government approval ratings near 62% in the state underpin trader consensus around 96.5% implied probability. Other registered candidates, including Flavio Bolsonaro, register in the low-to-mid 20s or single digits in state-level first-round simulations. Late developments such as an Amazon oil discovery or shifts in local alliances could influence turnout dynamics, though current margins suggest limited scope for rapid reversal absent major unforeseen events before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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