Russia’s Supreme Court removed Yabloko’s federal party list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a Rodina party lawsuit over alleged copyright violations and extremist slogans, with the appeals panel upholding the ruling on August 17 and the Central Election Commission confirming the exclusion days later. This decision eliminates the party’s ability to compete for proportional-representation seats under the 5 percent threshold, consistent with long-standing administrative and legal hurdles that have kept Yabloko below viability since 1999. Traders assign 98.9 percent probability to “No” because the party list is absent from the nationwide ballot and single-member constituency candidacies do not aggregate into list-based results. Remaining uncertainty centers on any remote prospect of further supervisory review or Constitutional Court intervention before voting concludes.