Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation, leads the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial race with strong polling margins ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data from July, show Ferraço at 38–41% in first-round scenarios against Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) at 27–30%, with Ferraço also favored in runoff matchups by 10+ points. His broad coalition, high approval ratings near 76%, and emphasis on fiscal continuity and public security have consolidated support. Pazolini, the former Vitória mayor who launched his candidacy in early August, trails as the clearest challenger but faces structural disadvantages as a non-incumbent. Other confirmed candidates, such as Helder Salomão (PT), register in single digits and appear unlikely to advance. Trader consensus reflects Ferraço’s consistent polling edge and incumbency advantages entering the final campaign stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEspírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço 87%
Lorenzo Pazolini 11%
Arnaldinho Borgo <1%
Sergio Vidigal <1%
$31,916 Vol.
$31,916 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
87%
Lorenzo Pazolini
11%
Arnaldinho Borgo
<1%
Sergio Vidigal
<1%
Euclério Sampaio
<1%
Ricardo Ferraço 87%
Lorenzo Pazolini 11%
Arnaldinho Borgo <1%
Sergio Vidigal <1%
$31,916 Vol.
$31,916 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
$11,304 Vol.
87%
Lorenzo Pazolini
$9,013 Vol.
11%
Arnaldinho Borgo
$4,602 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Vidigal
$3,569 Vol.
<1%
Euclério Sampaio
$3,428 Vol.
<1%
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation, leads the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial race with strong polling margins ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data from July, show Ferraço at 38–41% in first-round scenarios against Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) at 27–30%, with Ferraço also favored in runoff matchups by 10+ points. His broad coalition, high approval ratings near 76%, and emphasis on fiscal continuity and public security have consolidated support. Pazolini, the former Vitória mayor who launched his candidacy in early August, trails as the clearest challenger but faces structural disadvantages as a non-incumbent. Other confirmed candidates, such as Helder Salomão (PT), register in single digits and appear unlikely to advance. Trader consensus reflects Ferraço’s consistent polling edge and incumbency advantages entering the final campaign stretch.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$31,916End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation, leads the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial race with strong polling margins ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data from July, show Ferraço at 38–41% in first-round scenarios against Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) at 27–30%, with Ferraço also favored in runoff matchups by 10+ points. His broad coalition, high approval ratings near 76%, and emphasis on fiscal continuity and public security have consolidated support. Pazolini, the former Vitória mayor who launched his candidacy in early August, trails as the clearest challenger but faces structural disadvantages as a non-incumbent. Other confirmed candidates, such as Helder Salomão (PT), register in single digits and appear unlikely to advance. Trader consensus reflects Ferraço’s consistent polling edge and incumbency advantages entering the final campaign stretch.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$31,916End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation, leads the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial race with strong polling margins ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data from July, show Ferraço at 38–41% in first-round scenarios against Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) at 27–30%, with Ferraço also favored in runoff matchups by 10+ points. His broad coalition, high approval ratings near 76%, and emphasis on fiscal continuity and public security have consolidated support. Pazolini, the former Vitória mayor who launched his candidacy in early August, trails as the clearest challenger but faces structural disadvantages as a non-incumbent. Other confirmed candidates, such as Helder Salomão (PT), register in single digits and appear unlikely to advance. Trader consensus reflects Ferraço’s consistent polling edge and incumbency advantages entering the final campaign stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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