Lula’s commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Sergipe’s October 4 first-round vote reflects the state’s status as a Northeast stronghold where his Workers’ Party coalition has historically outperformed national averages among lower-income and Catholic voters. Recent national polls, including August Quaest and Nexus/BTG surveys, show Lula maintaining a lead in first-round scenarios while his regional base remains stable, reinforcing expectations that Sergipe will mirror broader Northeast patterns. Flavio Bolsonaro leads other challengers nationally but trails significantly in Lula’s core areas. Late developments such as candidate scandals, health events, or turnout shifts among evangelical or southern-leaning blocs could narrow margins, though such changes would need to overcome entrenched local preferences to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 96%
Clariana Barao 2.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,519 Vol.
$13,519 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Clariana Barao
3%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 96%
Clariana Barao 2.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.6%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,519 Vol.
$13,519 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,347 Vol.
96%
Clariana Barao
$959 Vol.
3%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$541 Vol.
2%
Edmilson Costa
$486 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$470 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$492 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$486 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$470 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$498 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$478 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$492 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$469 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$331 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Sergipe’s October 4 first-round vote reflects the state’s status as a Northeast stronghold where his Workers’ Party coalition has historically outperformed national averages among lower-income and Catholic voters. Recent national polls, including August Quaest and Nexus/BTG surveys, show Lula maintaining a lead in first-round scenarios while his regional base remains stable, reinforcing expectations that Sergipe will mirror broader Northeast patterns. Flavio Bolsonaro leads other challengers nationally but trails significantly in Lula’s core areas. Late developments such as candidate scandals, health events, or turnout shifts among evangelical or southern-leaning blocs could narrow margins, though such changes would need to overcome entrenched local preferences to alter the outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$13,519End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula’s commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Sergipe’s October 4 first-round vote reflects the state’s status as a Northeast stronghold where his Workers’ Party coalition has historically outperformed national averages among lower-income and Catholic voters. Recent national polls, including August Quaest and Nexus/BTG surveys, show Lula maintaining a lead in first-round scenarios while his regional base remains stable, reinforcing expectations that Sergipe will mirror broader Northeast patterns. Flavio Bolsonaro leads other challengers nationally but trails significantly in Lula’s core areas. Late developments such as candidate scandals, health events, or turnout shifts among evangelical or southern-leaning blocs could narrow margins, though such changes would need to overcome entrenched local preferences to alter the outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,519End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula’s commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Sergipe’s October 4 first-round vote reflects the state’s status as a Northeast stronghold where his Workers’ Party coalition has historically outperformed national averages among lower-income and Catholic voters. Recent national polls, including August Quaest and Nexus/BTG surveys, show Lula maintaining a lead in first-round scenarios while his regional base remains stable, reinforcing expectations that Sergipe will mirror broader Northeast patterns. Flavio Bolsonaro leads other challengers nationally but trails significantly in Lula’s core areas. Late developments such as candidate scandals, health events, or turnout shifts among evangelical or southern-leaning blocs could narrow margins, though such changes would need to overcome entrenched local preferences to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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