Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Paraná’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s consistent right-leaning electorate and the Bolsonaro family’s established regional base. Recent national polling shows Flávio narrowing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva amid debates over economic performance and governance, while Paraná-specific patterns favor conservative candidates through strong local party organization and voter turnout dynamics. Other contenders, including Ronaldo Caiado and various smaller names, register minimal support in available surveys. Late developments such as shifts in coalition endorsements, turnout among key voting blocs, or unexpected national events could still alter first-place positioning before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
5%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,865 Vol.
94%
Lula
$264 Vol.
5%
Renan Santos
$267 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$349 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$366 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$366 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$422 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$366 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$367 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$456 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$371 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$409 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$331 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Paraná’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s consistent right-leaning electorate and the Bolsonaro family’s established regional base. Recent national polling shows Flávio narrowing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva amid debates over economic performance and governance, while Paraná-specific patterns favor conservative candidates through strong local party organization and voter turnout dynamics. Other contenders, including Ronaldo Caiado and various smaller names, register minimal support in available surveys. Late developments such as shifts in coalition endorsements, turnout among key voting blocs, or unexpected national events could still alter first-place positioning before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$7,200End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Paraná’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s consistent right-leaning electorate and the Bolsonaro family’s established regional base. Recent national polling shows Flávio narrowing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva amid debates over economic performance and governance, while Paraná-specific patterns favor conservative candidates through strong local party organization and voter turnout dynamics. Other contenders, including Ronaldo Caiado and various smaller names, register minimal support in available surveys. Late developments such as shifts in coalition endorsements, turnout among key voting blocs, or unexpected national events could still alter first-place positioning before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,200End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Paraná’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s consistent right-leaning electorate and the Bolsonaro family’s established regional base. Recent national polling shows Flávio narrowing gaps with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva amid debates over economic performance and governance, while Paraná-specific patterns favor conservative candidates through strong local party organization and voter turnout dynamics. Other contenders, including Ronaldo Caiado and various smaller names, register minimal support in available surveys. Late developments such as shifts in coalition endorsements, turnout among key voting blocs, or unexpected national events could still alter first-place positioning before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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