Recent August polling in Paraná shows a fragmented field for the two Senate seats, with Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Alexandre Curi clustered in the mid-to-high 20s percent range in consolidated estimates while undecided and blank responses often exceed 30-40 percent. Deltan’s positioning benefits from his Lava Jato profile and Novo’s alliance with PL and Podemos, yet legal eligibility questions remain under review by electoral courts. Gleisi draws consistent PT support in northern regions, Barros benefits from right-leaning consolidation, and Curi registers gains in urban samples. High indecision and the mechanics of dual preference voting keep second-place probabilities closely bunched, with separation likely to emerge from late-cycle regional swings, turnout differentials, or clearer signals on Deltan’s candidacy status before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDeltan Dallagnol 41%
Filipe Barros 29%
Gleisi 25.7%
Alexandre Curi 5%
$16,423 Vol.
$16,423 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Deltan Dallagnol
41%
Filipe Barros
29%
Gleisi
26%
Alexandre Curi
5%
Cristina Reis Graeml
5%
Marcelo Marcelino
1%
Joaquim do MLB
1%
Dr. Rosinha
1%
Karen Guerreiro
<1%
Deltan Dallagnol 41%
Filipe Barros 29%
Gleisi 25.7%
Alexandre Curi 5%
$16,423 Vol.
$16,423 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Deltan Dallagnol
$4,494 Vol.
41%
Filipe Barros
$8,140 Vol.
29%
Gleisi
$1,476 Vol.
26%
Alexandre Curi
$1,186 Vol.
5%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$193 Vol.
5%
Marcelo Marcelino
$235 Vol.
1%
Joaquim do MLB
$182 Vol.
1%
Dr. Rosinha
$157 Vol.
1%
Karen Guerreiro
$361 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent August polling in Paraná shows a fragmented field for the two Senate seats, with Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Alexandre Curi clustered in the mid-to-high 20s percent range in consolidated estimates while undecided and blank responses often exceed 30-40 percent. Deltan’s positioning benefits from his Lava Jato profile and Novo’s alliance with PL and Podemos, yet legal eligibility questions remain under review by electoral courts. Gleisi draws consistent PT support in northern regions, Barros benefits from right-leaning consolidation, and Curi registers gains in urban samples. High indecision and the mechanics of dual preference voting keep second-place probabilities closely bunched, with separation likely to emerge from late-cycle regional swings, turnout differentials, or clearer signals on Deltan’s candidacy status before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$16,423End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent August polling in Paraná shows a fragmented field for the two Senate seats, with Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Alexandre Curi clustered in the mid-to-high 20s percent range in consolidated estimates while undecided and blank responses often exceed 30-40 percent. Deltan’s positioning benefits from his Lava Jato profile and Novo’s alliance with PL and Podemos, yet legal eligibility questions remain under review by electoral courts. Gleisi draws consistent PT support in northern regions, Barros benefits from right-leaning consolidation, and Curi registers gains in urban samples. High indecision and the mechanics of dual preference voting keep second-place probabilities closely bunched, with separation likely to emerge from late-cycle regional swings, turnout differentials, or clearer signals on Deltan’s candidacy status before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,423End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August polling in Paraná shows a fragmented field for the two Senate seats, with Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Alexandre Curi clustered in the mid-to-high 20s percent range in consolidated estimates while undecided and blank responses often exceed 30-40 percent. Deltan’s positioning benefits from his Lava Jato profile and Novo’s alliance with PL and Podemos, yet legal eligibility questions remain under review by electoral courts. Gleisi draws consistent PT support in northern regions, Barros benefits from right-leaning consolidation, and Curi registers gains in urban samples. High indecision and the mechanics of dual preference voting keep second-place probabilities closely bunched, with separation likely to emerge from late-cycle regional swings, turnout differentials, or clearer signals on Deltan’s candidacy status before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions